92% of middle-class families face tax hike of over $2,200 beginning in 2019: Fraser Institute

Torontosun.com
Jan. 11, 2018
By Justin Tang

A new Fraser Institute report - The Effect of Canadian Families of Changes to Federal Income Tax and CPP Payroll Tax - says more than 90% of Canadian families will pay higher taxes once the Canada Pension Plan tax increases are fully implemented by 2025. The first of seven increases to CPP tax - which all workers much pay - begins January 2019. The study's co-author, Charles Lammam, talks about the impact on middle-class families.

What was the most surprising thing you found in the report?

"Canadian families will endure a significant tax increase and that tax bill will increase over time. The Trudeau government has talked a lot about cutting taxes for families. Based on the personal income tax changes they've already put in the case, we've found that's not true for the vast majority of middle class families. But then there are major tax changes set to come into effect, starting next year, particularly the payroll tax hike to fund the Canada Pension Plan expansion. We found that plus what has already been implemented will result in over 92% of all families with children in Canada paying higher taxes and they'll be paying on average $2,200 more per year."

Why is this significant?

"The Trudeau government has repeatedly claimed to cut taxes on the vast majority of families and our findings show that's not the case…The reason why the Trudeau government is claiming they cut taxes because they're focusing on just one of the many changes that they've either enacted themselves or spearheaded as a government. The focus has been on the federal rate cut from 22% to 20.5% - however, the reality is they've introduced several other tax changes both to the personal income tax system and they've spearheaded with the provinces, CPP, which will result in higher payroll taxes."

What does a $2,200 tax hike mean in context for 92% of families in Canada?

"It could be a mortgage payment for a family, it could be childcare, grocery bills. We're not talking about a trivial amount here. It is a significant increase in the tax bill, no doubt. When we look at the middle class, they're actually more hard-hit than the overall average. Which is ironic because that is the group of families that Trudeau government has said they want to help. In fact, what will happen in practice, there will be basically no tax decrease for anybody once the CPP tax changes are in full effect."

What happens to the remaining 8% of families?

"Either their tax bill stays the same or slightly decrease. We don't do the analysis – who the incomes are of the 8%. It's not something our analysis includes. What I can say is when you look at that middle group of families - these are families with income of $78,000 and $110,000. About 99% in this income range will be paying higher taxes."

Your report explains that Canadian families could be paying even more. Can you explain?

"In our report, we've only calculated two of the major tax changes that have been announced so far. But then there's others that we do not account for in these numbers. So, for example, you raise the carbon tax. This is a federally mandated tax that will be increasing over the course of the coming years. The potential for an even higher tax bill for families is greater than what we've outlined here. There's also the scaling back of the contribution room of the Tax Free Savings Account, there are also new taxes they're implementing on small businesses."

How can Canadian families prepare for this up-shift in taxes beginning Jan. 2019?

"I don't know if they can. A tax is a forced contribution to the government. I think the takeaway is we have a government that is repeating a claim to Canadians and I think it's important for Canadians to be aware of what the claim is. And the reality is contrary to what the government is saying."

BY THE NUMBERS

92.2% -  The percentage of Canadian families with kids that will pay higher taxes as a result of federal income tax changes and the Canada Pension Plan payroll tax hike

$2,218 - What Canadian families with kids-regardless of income-will pay, on average, in higher taxes

$1,624 - What the CPP tax increase alone will cost

2025 - The year the CPP payroll tax hike will be fully implemented