Warmer weather to come, prognosticators insist

YorkRegion.com
Aug. 1, 2014
Amanda Persico

If cool and comfortable is your thing, then this has been the summer for you.

But anyone pining for more scorching beach weather days, you may have to wait a little longer.

“It’s different strokes for different folks,” said former York Region resident and Environment Canada senior Climatologist Dave Phillips.

“If you prefer room temperature and being comfortable, then you can’t complain. But if you prefer a beer on a patio or have a pool in your back yard, you might feel a little cheated.”

But it is still too early to write the final chapter on summer, he added.

While July – usually the hottest month of the year – is being pegged as the coolest month compared to normal temperatures, warmer temperatures are yet to come.

And the upcoming long weekend will only be a teaser.

The rest of summer – August and September – forecasts are showing warmer-than-normal temperatures, Phillips said.

Warm southerly weather is on the way and will take over the last six weeks of summer, he added, that will balance off the cooler days we’ve had this month.

After the long cold winter, spring took a while to get going, Phillips said.

That led to two schools of thought on how the summer would pan out – either hot and humid, to balance out the winter, or it would be a rough summer, falling in line with the cooler days we’ve had all year.

“Nature doesn’t balance things off,” he said. “Nature doesn’t feel sorry for us. Natures does not follow trends.”

But August will bring closer-to-normal-temperatures.

This year, May was about 1 C warmer than normal and June was about 0.5 C warmer than normal.

But July has come as a real surprise with the median temperature reaching about 19 C –  about 2 C cooler than normal. The median temperature takes into account both the daytime high and night time lows.

In 2012, the median temperature for July was about 23.5 C.

“That’s a sea change,” Phillips said. “You notice 1 C. But 4 C is a whole different regime.”

But with cooler temperatures comes less smoggy days, clearer air and more comfortable nights, he added.

That also means fewer air-conditioning days.

So far this summer, there have been about 25 per cent air-conditioning days, compared to 2013 and about 40 per cent less than 2012, Phillips said.

But we can expect to see more days above the 30 C mark – more air-conditioning days – and without the rain.

“We don’t need the precipitation, we’ve had a lot already,” Phillips said. “We will see an end to that. The crops have had enough rain. Now, they need the sun and the heat to grow. And then we’ll have a bountiful harvest.”

Between May, June and July there has been about 36 per cent more rain over normal levels. This year, precipitation has reached about 318 mm, compared to the normal 234 mm level.

There was actually more rain last year between May and July, with about 350 mm of precipitation.

But this weekend’s two-day massive storm – which saw several areas of Markham flooded, including Rodick Rd and Hwy. 7 and Woodbine and Steeles avenues – was record breaking.

Sunday, with about 77.6 mm of rain is the wettest July on record in about 30 years of record keeping at Buttonville Airport.

That’s about a 70-per-cent increase from the previous wet July day record with about 46 mm of rain on July 31, 2012.

While there has been more rain than normal these summer months, the rain has been limited to either early morning or late evening during the week, leaving weekends clear for cottage-goers.

Of the 28 Saturdays, Sundays and holidays in the past three months, it only rained on nine days. And rain was rare during the peak hours of the day, Phillips said.

“The rain stayed away from the weekends,” he said. “Who cares if it rains on a Tuesday or Wednesday morning. If it did rain on the weekend, it was early enough not to ruin your golf game.”

SIDEBAR

By the numbers:
• 29.8 C – hottest day in July 2014 compared to 35.6 in July 2013;

• 7 days – of temperatures reaching higher than 30 C in July 2013, compared to zero this July;

• 1 day – of temperatures reaching higher than 30 C between May, June and July. And that was on June 30, with 30 C. The normal for this time period is 12 days. In 2013, there were 12 days above 30 C and in 2012 there were 20;

• 26 C – average day temperature in July, with the hottest day reaching 29.8 C and the coldest falling to about 21 C;

• 19.4 C – median (both day and night temperatures) temperature so far in July. The normal median for July is about 21.2 C;

• 23.5 C – was the median temperature for July 2012;

• 318 mm – of rain since May this year. The normal is about 234 mm. That’s an increase of about 36 per cent;

• 350 mm – of rain between May and July 2013, compared to 274 mm in 2012 over the same time period;

• 158 mm – of rain since the beginning of July, compared to 102 mm in July 2013

• 14 – days of rain in each May, June and July compared to the normal of 12 days in May and June and 11 in July;

• 28 – Saturdays, Sundays and holidays between May and July. Only nine saw rain;

• 11 – days where there was more than 10 mm of rain between May and July, compared to the normal of nine days;

• 86 mm – of rain fell between July 27 and July 28. More than 77 mm of rain fell on July 27, which is now the wettest July day in about 30 years of weather data, based out of Buttonville Airport. The previous record was July 31, 2012 with more than 45 mm.

– measurements taken from Buttonville Airport