York Region advance polls busier than provincial average ahead of election

YorkRegion.ca
June 11, 2014
By  Sean Pearce

The rate of participation in advance polls ahead of today’s provincial election may have dipped by 6 per cent across Ontario, but it was up about 3.5 per cent in York Region.

Preliminary figures released by Elections Ontario indicate 566,845 voters provincewide opted to cast their ballots early this year, which is down from the 603,785 electors who did so in the 2011 contest.

The region’s numbers fared better with 37,473 people taking advantage of advance polling options this time around, compared to the 36,149 who voted ahead of time nearly three years ago.

The riding of Thornhill witnessed the largest increase in advance poll participation, going from 6,398 in 2011 to 7,538 in 2014, for a jump of 1,140 people or about 18 per cent, while York-Simcoe also saw a strong upswing in early voter turnout, with the number of electors hitting 2,979 this year, representing a rise of 609 people or about 26 per cent over 2011. The ridings of Richmond Hill and Markham-Unionville also saw increases in participation rates of 249 and 100 people, respectively, compared to 2011.

On the other hand, Newmarket-Aurora’s advance polls reported a dip of 306 voters this election, or about a 5 per cent drop, compared to 2011, while the Vaughan riding saw 244 — about 5 per cent — fewer people show up. The riding of Oak Ridges-Markham saw a decline of 224 voters at the advance polls or about 3.5 per cent.

All of that being said, the average turnout per day for the advance polling was generally up, given there were only seven days of early voting opportunities, compared to the 10 available for the 2011 fixed-date election.

Provincewide, the average turnout per day actually increased by more than 20,000 people to 80,978 and the average turnout in all of York’s ridings was up as well. Even in the ridings where the total number of early votes declined, the average turnout per day rose by about 222, 259 and 158 in the districts of Newmarket-Aurora, Oak Ridges-Markham and Vaughan, respectively.

While that may seem like cause for optimism, overall voter turnouts have long been on a slide, hitting just 48.2 per cent in 2011. It was 52.1 per cent in 2007 and 64.4 per cent in 1990.

So what does all of this mean for tonight?

It’s tough to guess, says York University political science professor Dennis Pilon.

“Advance voting is usually taken advantage of by more committed voters, so (the 6-per-cent provincial drop) might mean a serious decline in interest in this election amongst those who usually show up,” he said.

“I think most pundits are expecting a drop in voter turnout this time.”

Some of the localized spikes in participation, such as those seen in four of the region’s seven ridings, may reflect the effect of a campaign strategy in a particular riding, he added.