Review looks at options to manage expansion
PEEL GROWTH CHECKUP

NRU
March 26, 2014
By Edward LaRusic

As it looks to 2041, the Region of Peel can count on several positive factors: an influx of new residents, added employment and economic growth. But with growth comes significant challenges, including an aging, unhealthy population poorly served by a car-dependent suburban built form.

Figuring out how to make the most of Peel’s future while addressing its challenges was the focus of a one-day workshop organized by the region this week to discuss changes to the regional official plan that would bring it into conformity with amendment 2 of the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe.

This was the second growth management workshop held by the region for its “Peel 2041: regional official plan review.” The session brought stakeholders together to discuss how Peel can adapt to a growing, older population and address issues related to public transit and climate change.

The challenge is daunting. The Growth Plan forecasts that Peel’s population could rise to 1.9 million residents by 2041, up 600,000 from 1.3-million currently. Over the same period, employment in Peel is expected to climb to 966,000 jobs, up 300,000 from 682,000 at present.

Given the growth challenge, some strong medicine is in order, according to officials at the workshop. Jim Dunn, research chair on neighbourhoods, housing & health at McMaster University and a scientist at St. Michael’s Hospital, said sarcastically that the only benefit of not addressing these problems - the status quo - is that “it will provide certainty.”

According to Peel, more than half of its current population is either overweight or obese, with one in ten suffering from diabetes. As well, the average commuting time in the region is
82 minutes per day.

Dunn said a growing number of people live in single person households, an arrangement that can lead to social isolation - particularly for those aged 65 or older. In Peel, the percentage of seniors is expected to almost double from 13.2 per cent in 2012 to 25.9 per cent in 2036. Meanwhile, Dunn noted, new provincial rules will require those over 80 years of age to pass a “cognitive test” to obtain a driver’s license, with the risk that some seniors would not be able to drive a car.

“The thing that scares me about that is that we’re going to have tens of thousands of seniors that are going to be living in suburban built environments, entirely car-dependent, who have no driver’s license,” he said.

Arvin Prasad, director of integrated planning for Peel, identified other challenges for the region. He described the so-called “whitebelt” - the area of land between urban settlement boundaries, and the Greenbelt boundaries - as 100,000 acres of land “caught in a policy vacuum” without clear direction from the province. He also noted that Peel Region lost almost 20,000 manufacturing jobs between 2006 and 2011, and that the region is facing challenges in achieving the level of urban density envisioned in the provincially prescribed Places to
Grow policy.

A recent Peel study of housing form within designated greenfield areas found that 61 per cent of all development since the Growth Plan remains single-family detached homes, according to Prasad.

Transportation is another significant concern for the region’s futur. While the absolute percentage of people who alone use a car to get to work has fallen to 66.4% of residents and the amount carpooling and transit use has risen, Prasad said the number of residents who cycle or walk to work has fallen 0.3% and 4.4% of residents respectively.

“What is the prescription for success?” he asked. “I can tell you, part of the answer has to lie in maximizing our infrastructure and our investments.”

Prasad said that the region will need to focus on multiple issues: intensification; protection of stable neighbourhoods; safeguarding of water and natural resources; creation of a healthy food supply; adaptation to climate change; investment in transit and creation of complete communities “that are livable, walkable, and are a pleasure to live in.”

Most of all, he said that the region will need to figure out how to pay for the life-cycle costs of infrastructure that often leave municipalities on the financial hook.

“We need a financial model where growth pays for itself.”

“The Growth Plan was a prescription for good planning,” said Prasad. But he adds: “Like all medicine, it should have come with a warning label.”

“The Growth Plan could lead to constant official plan reviews, always allocating population and employment numbers,” he said. “The Growth Plan could put in density targets that in some communities just cannot be met. The Growth Plan may not actually alter travel behaviour, or reduce the consumption of rural lands.”

At the end of the workshop that brought together planners, politicians, and members of the building industry, some consensus emerged on managing future growth, including the need to impose a “hard” urban boundary to limit development on the remaining greenfield lands in the region.

John Gladki (Gladki Planning Associates), the workshop facilitator, said that feedback from the session would assist staff in drafting new policies for Peel’s regional official plan review.

Peel staff will be giving an oral update to the Region of Peel’s growth management sub-committee of council on March 27.

More consultation on the review is to come.