Wynne's Liberals hope for byelection snow blowout 126

Toronto Sun
Feb. 5, 2014
By Christina Blizzard

The wintry blast that hammered southern Ontario this week raises questions about the Niagara Falls and Thornhill byelections slated for Feb. 13.

Will another storm blow through that day, making driving difficult - especially in Niagara, where rural voters may have trouble getting to the polls?

This, of course, is what the Liberal government of Kathleen Wynne is hoping for.

Hold a byelection in the middle of a snowy February and hope no one can get out to register how unhappy they are with this government that’s spent like fools.

The Liberals have a tough task in Niagara.

Kim Craitor, the former Liberal MPP who triggered the byelection when he resigned in September, was personally very popular in the riding. Over the past decade, he was vocal in his dislike of the McGuinty government, opposing them on issues such as the implementation of the HST.

Since his shocking resignation, he’s stayed out of the byelection.

Niagara Falls Councillor Joyce Morocco is carrying the banner for the Liberals.

Judging by their ads, this battle is between the Tories and the NDP.

Regional councillor Bart Maves, who represented the riding during the Mike Harris years, is running for the Tories. Wayne Gates is the NDP candidate.

They’ve been trading a war of words, with the Tories releasing an ad Wednesday in which they report Gates saying he’d like to see the CAW union take over the NDP.

Polls have become notoriously unreliable of late.

None of them predicted the NDP’s big win in London West last year.

It’s tough to identify who actually lives in the riding. Not many people have home phones these days. Voter turn-out is also notoriously low in byelections. Even if you find someone at home, can you be sure they’re going to vote?

Affluent Niagara-on-the-Lake will likely vote PC, while gritty, hardscrabble parts of the riding such as Fort Erie will vote NDP, although Tory Leader Tim Hudak is from that town, so he may pick up votes there.

After shutting down hospitals and ERs for 10 years, Liberals suddenly announced a new Niagara hospital after the election writ was dropped. Voters aren’t impressed.

After they allowed the racetrack to die, the Liberals will be hard-pressed to find anyone who’ll vote for them.

Likewise, Liberal fortunes have plummeted in Niagara Falls.

It was only Craitor’s personal popularity that kept the Honeymoon Capital in the Liberal fold last time out.

Thornhill is a squeaker between the Tories and the Liberals.

Popular high-profile broadcaster Peter Shurman won the riding in 2007 from Liberal Mario Racco - largely on the Tory pledge to fund faith-based schools. The riding has a large Jewish population.

He increased his majority in 2011 and was very popular in the riding. He resigned after a disagreement with Hudak.

The Tories are running Gila Martow, who has strong roots in the Jewish community. She’s battling Sandra Yeung Racco - Mario Racco’s wife.

Insiders say Martow has an edge in the riding, but others point out that she’s a political newcomer while Yeung Racco is a Vaughan councillor.

This byelection will be a tough test for Hudak. He faced serious internal unrest in the party when he was only able to elect one new MPP in the five byelections last summer. He faced an attempted leadership review at a PC convention last September.

The unrest is still there. If he loses Thornhill and doesn’t make a breakthrough in Niagara Falls, you can count on more questions being raised about his leadership. If he wins both ridings, he’ll become a party hero. Losing Thornhill and taking Niagara Falls would be a draw for him.

Still, after the $1.1 billion the Liberals blew moving two gas-fired plants, can there be any voters in either riding willing to give them another chance?

That’s why Liberals are praying for snow next Thursday.

And you can take that from a Blizzard.