Winter looks better than last year for York Region

Yorkregion.com
Nov. 6, 2014
By Laura Finney

Last winter brought bone-chilling phrases such as polar vortex and frost quakes.

The long and cold season extended into spring, which was followed by what many people felt was a disappointing summer.

With the arrival of November and snow in some places, many in southern Ontario are wondering what this winter will be like.

“When you look at all the forecasts from the Farmer’s Almanac to the private meteorologists, to the U.S. weather service to ours, you’ll find everything under the sun.” Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips said. “Someone is bound to be right, and let’s hope it’s not the Farmer’s Almanac.”

The Almanac is predicting a very nasty winter.

“I think they were looking at last year’s winter,” he said.

Not to disparage the book, but he said the Almanac prepares its forecasts two years in advance.

“They look at woolly bear caterpillars and moon phases,” he said. “Not a lot of science in their forecast.”

While he admitted Environment Canada is not always right, he said it explains predictions with physical means, such as water temperatures or jet streams.

And, so far, its forecasts are a little more optimistic.

While the official winter forecast doesn’t come out until Dec.1, Phillips said there are some preliminary predictions.
“We think it looks like it will kind of be normal to milder to normal,” he said.

But there is some uncertainly with El Nino, a warm pool of water in the Pacific that helps kick the cold polar air back up north, which has not emerged yet.

“We know it’s going to be weak, so we will see the Pacific air, but it may not make it to Yonge Street,” he said.

But, overall, Phillips thinks this winter will still not be as bad as last year.

One of the problems last year, according to Phillips, was not the low temperature alone. The problem was the duration.

“It went on forever,” he said.

For example, in Richmond Hill, there were 18 days where the thermometer dropped below minus 20.

“That’s a cold day,” he said.

Normally there would be six.

Last year also saw a lot of snow, with little melting.

“Every time you looked out the window, there was a continuous cover of snow,” he said.

“That really wore us down.”

But, this year, temperatures will not be as cruel, he said, and he expects more melting this season.

“That polar vortex, which just hung out like an unwanted house guest that wouldn’t leave last year, is going to be there, it’s always there,” he said.

“It looks like it may be around, but not as far south or for as long.”

And while models from the U.S. Weather Service, Environment Canada and private meteorologists all have different forecasts, they all say winter will not be as intense or long as last year, he said.

But it will still be winter.

“There will be moments where we wish we were somewhere else,” he said.

“We never cancel winter and we won’t this year.”

And that is not necessarily a bad thing.

He said the winter is good for the local ecosystem and the economy.

“It is who we are. We are a winter people,” he said.