Tories lead in Thornhill and Niagara Falls, poll suggests

The Progressive Conservatives enjoy an early lead in the upcoming byelections in Thornhill and Niagara Falls, new polls suggest

Toronto Star
Jan. 17, 2014
By Robert Benzie

The Progressive Conservatives enjoy an early lead in the upcoming byelections in Thornhill and Niagara Falls, new polls suggest.

As voters get set to cast ballots in those key ridings on Feb. 13, the Forum Research surveys found the Conservatives ahead of the governing Liberals and the New Democrats.

In Thornhill, where a successor to former Tory MPP Peter Shurman will be chosen, Tory candidate Gila Martow was at 44 per cent to 36 per cent for Liberal Sandra Yeung Racco.

The NDP and Greens will select candidates this weekend so Forum polled using their 2011 election standard-bearers. Green Stephanie Duncan was at 10 per cent and New Democrat Cindy Hackelberg was at 7 per cent.

In Niagara Falls, where the byelection is being held to find a replacement for retired Liberal MPP Kim Craitor, Tory Bart Maves, a former MPP, was at 36 per cent to 28 per cent for Liberal Joyce Morocco.

New Democrat Wayne Gates, expected to be formally nominated this weekend, was also at 28 per cent while Green hopeful Clarke Bitter was at 5 per cent.

“The campaign hasn’t really started yet. The Tories have eight-point leads - it’s not tiny and it’s not a slam dunk,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff cautioned Thursday.

Bozinoff said recent byelection history suggests the NDP could do well in Niagara Falls because the party was able to win London West from the Liberals last August and Kitchener-Waterloo from the Tories in 2012.

“In that riding, I think the three parties are going to go crazy because it’s a legitimate three-way race and the NDP have shown they can take a 28 point position and win,” he said, referring to the New Democrats’ current polling there.

Forum surveyed 750 people in Niagara Falls on Wednesday - the same day Premier Kathleen Wynne called the byelections - and results are considered accurate to within four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

In Thornhill, the pollster surveyed 568 people with the same margin of error of four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Mindful that Thornhill should be a tight two-party contest with the Conservatives, the provincial Liberals enlisted federal Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau to help with a rally on Thursday.

Flanked by Yeung Racco, Trudeau, who will also campaign with Wynne in Niagara Falls on Friday, said he was delighted to be “on the ground” to help.

“Everywhere I see a sense of optimism around the Liberal option and what the Liberal party is putting forward at the federal level and here in Ontario,” he told reporters.

Trudeau attracts enthusiastic crowds and considerable media attention in much of the country and provincial Grits say they are especially grateful for his assistance.

In the 107-member legislature, the minority Liberals have 49 seats - including Speaker Dave Levac - to 36 for the Conservatives and 20 for the New Democrats.