44% of voters support Trudeau's deficit plan, poll finds

Results suggest more Canadians support investment than restraint during tough economic times.

Thestar.com
Sept. 9, 2015
By Ben Spurr

Justin Trudeau may have taken a gamble when he announced the Liberals would run deficits if they form the next government. But it’s a gamble that could well pay off, if the results of a new poll are any indication.

A poll conducted by Forum Research last week found that only a minority of voters believe the government should focus on balancing the books during a slow economy.

With the Canadian economy sliding into a recession during first half of 2015, the Conservatives and NDP have both made balancing the budget the cornerstone of their economic plans.

But last month Trudeau struck out on his own and said a Liberal government would run modest deficits until 2019. While dipping into the red, the Liberals would spend an additional $60 billion over 10 years on infrastructure projects, which the party believes would stimulate the economy.

That platform move could be good news for Trudeau.

Just 18 per cent agreed that the government’s best strategy during tough economic times is to “impose austerity and cut spending to eliminate deficits.” But nearly half - or 45 per cent - agreed that it’s better to invest in infrastructure.

And 44 per cent approved of Trudeau’s plan to run deficits for three years after the election, while 38 per cent disapproved.

By being the only main federal party to prioritize spending over balancing the books, the Liberals may have staked out fertile territory, said Forum president Lorne Bozinoff, adding “they have it to themselves.”

“They need to deal with other issues that may be holding them back, like the perceived lack of experience of Justin Trudeau,” Bozinoff said. “But I think they’ve scored a win in this round on this economic argument.”

So far this campaign, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have prioritized keeping taxes low and giving tax credits to certain demographics and industries. The party argues its low-tax policy is good for the economy because it shores up family finances and stimulates important industrial sectors.

The Conservative government says it has succeeded in eliminating the deficit, and predicted a $1.4-billion surplus in the 2015 budget, although the parliamentary budget office has predicted a small deficit of $1 billion for the end of the fiscal year.

NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair has promised to balance the budget by 2016-17, which would be his first full fiscal year in power. The party has not yet said how it would stay in the black while also introducing billions in new spending for a national child-care program and other election promises, but Mulcair has said the details will be made public when the party releases its full election platform.

David Wolfe, co-director of the Innovation Policy Lab at the Munk School of Global Affairs, said that while tax breaks and expanded social programs can help stimulate the economy, many economists would agree that infrastructure investment is the best course of action in the current economic climate.

Wolfe said it’s accepted wisdom that governments should invest during slow economic times, and infrastructure projects are particularly attractive because they have the dual benefit of creating jobs in the short term, while increasing economic productivity through better roads, transit, and telecommunications systems in the long term.

With interest rates currently at historic lows, there is also a reduced risk of borrowing to support deficit spending, Wolfe said.

“If you’re going to do infrastructure spending, it’s great to do it when it’s so cheap to borrow money for the public purse, and when you’re in a bit of a recession.”

The Forum poll was conducted using an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,384 Canadians. It was conducted from Aug. 30 to Sept. 1, and is considered accurate plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.