5 Ontario ridings that could help determine 2015 election

The next prime minister of Canada will be determined largely by Ontario voters, and five vacant ridings could be crucial.

Thestar.com
Sept. 13, 2015
By Robert Benzie

The next prime minister of Canada will be determined largely by Ontario voters.

With 121 of the 338 seats at stake in the Oct. 19 election, Canada’s most populous province is far and away its most politically important.

Ontario has more seats in the House of Commons than the combined tally of the second and third biggest provinces, Quebec and British Columbia.

MPs from the province accounted for about 44 per cent of the most recent Conservative government caucus and almost 56 per cent of the members of the previous Liberal government in Ottawa.

That’s why Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau have spent so much time campaigning here.

While the leaders are focusing a lot of attention on Toronto and its surrounding suburbs - where literally dozens of seats are in play, according to public opinion polls - there are many other races to watch over the coming weeks.

Here are some of the other key Ontario ridings that the major parties are working hard to win:

Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas:

With many social conservatives in this newly redistributed seat - much of which had been represented by Conservative MP David Sweet (Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale), who has opted to run in Flamborough-Glanbrook - it’s no surprise abortion is a hot topic. Liberal Filomena Tassi, chaplain at an Ancaster Catholic high school, made headlines when she said she was “pro-life” while her party is “pro-choice.” Vincent Samuel, a retired Pakistan Army officer who won the nomination thanks to cultural communities, is the Conservative candidate. Alex Johnstone, vice-chair of the Hamilton-Wentworth District School Board, is running for the NDP, and engineer Peter Ormond is again the Green flag-bearer.

Ottawa West-Nepean:

The resignation of former foreign affairs minister John Baird, one of the highest profile Conservatives in the country, has left this redistribution-altered riding wide open. The Conservatives are pinning their hopes on Ottawa police constable Abdul Abdi, who has been especially active in doing community outreach to Muslim youth. He’s up against Liberal human rights expert Anita Vandenbeld, a former senior United Nations adviser, who has worked in Vietnam, Bangladesh and the Congo as well as a high-ranking political aide on Parliament Hill. Health-care activist Marlene Rivier is the NDP candidate. The Greens have yet to nominate someone in this key suburban seat.

Peterborough-Kawartha:

Former Conservative MP Dean Del Mastro was convicted of electoral fraud earlier this summer - and sentenced to one month in jail and prohibited from running for office for five years. He sat as an independent before resigning in disgrace in November for his 2008 election crime. But Conservative candidate Michael Skinner, a local businessman, says he’s not hearing about the scandal from voters. Dave Nickle, who finished second to Del Mastro in 2011, is the NDP candidate. Maryam Monsef, runner-up in Peterborough’s mayoral race last fall, the Liberal standard-bearer. Wilderness guide Toban Leckie is running for the Greens.

Sudbury:

This seat has been vacant since NDP incumbent Glenn Thibeault stunned his party by defecting to the provincial Liberals to run and win a controversial Feb. 5 byelection that is the subject of an ongoing OPP investigation. The New Democrats are hoping musician Paul Loewenberg, who nearly drummed out veteran Liberal cabinet minister Rick Bartolucci in the 2011 Ontario election, can make a hit federally. But tax lawyer and former Ontario Human Rights Commission member Paul Lefebvre hopes to keep him off the charts. Accountant Fred Slade is running for the Conservatives and economics professor David Robinson for the Greens.

Sarnia-Lambton:

Voters in this bellwether riding and its predecessor constituencies, Sarnia and Lambton West, have elected MPs from the winning party nationally in every election since 1963. With three-term Conservative incumbent Pat Davidson not seeking re-election, it’s up to Tory Marilyn Gladu, a chemical engineer, to keep it in the blue column. Hoping to continue the trend - and help their leaders become prime minister - are Liberal David McPhail, a retired school principal who helped save the Sarnia Jail from closure, and the NDP’s Jason McMichael, a customs officer and union vice-president. Scientist Peter Smith, an energy expert, is the Green candidate.