Gains are modest but stakes high when debates go wrong

Stephen Harper, Justin Trudeau, Thomas Mulcair and Elizabeth May square off Thursday in Toronto in the first debate of the election.

Thestar.com
Aug. 5, 2015
By Bruce Campion-Smith

It’s a political high-wire act in front of millions of Canadians, an opportunity to impress but also where a serious misstep can sideline election aspirations.

On Thursday, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair and Green Party Leader Elizabeth May square off in Toronto in the first debate of the election, this one hosted by Maclean’s magazine.

The leaders were out of the public eye on Wednesday, huddled with advisers for debate prep, poring over briefing books and rehearsing the zingers they hope to deliver when the debate starts at 8 p.m.

For all the hype and drama, pollster Frank Graves downplays the ability of debates to shape the outcome of the election or crown a winner. But he cautions about the downside, noting that a debate fumble can be a serious setback, putting a leader on the defensive and demoralizing a campaign effort.

“You can lose an election with a crappy performance but you really can’t win one. That’s extremely unusual,” said Graves, of EKOS Research Associates.

Trudeau plans to visit a Toronto boxing gym Thursday morning, perhaps to get his game face on. Graves says Trudeau has the most to gain in the election debates, because of the Conservative efforts to paint the Liberal leader as a lightweight.

That continued in the run-up to Thursday’s debate as Conservative campaign spokesperson Kory Teneycke questioned Trudeau’s potential performance. “I think that if he comes on stage with his pants on, he will probably exceed expectations,” he told Canadian Press.

Yet Graves said Trudeau can surprise in this debate and come out a winner. “He can exceed expectations with even a competent performance. He doesn’t have to be brilliant,” Graves said.

Mulcair has shown his chops as a good debater, notably when he took Harper to task day after day in the Commons over the Senate scandal. Still, the NDP leader comes into the debate as a possible front-runner, according to recent polls - and that changes how voters will weigh his performance.

“He’s now being scrutinized not as someone who might be the leader of a third party. He’s been scrutinized as a potential prime minister so the stakes are very high for him,” Graves said.
“I think the media and the public are going to look at him in a very different way than they would have six months ago,” he said in an interview.

Harper takes the stage as the most experienced debater of the four; this will be his fifth leaders debate. He’s running on the Conservatives’ track record dating back to 2006 - and its baggage.

“For Harper, it’s about playing defence and not squandering any opportunities,” Graves said.

This year’s election will see a different debate format. In past campaigns, the debates have been rigid affairs, organized by the television networks and held in the middle of the campaign.

This election, there could be upwards of seven debates - though not all leaders have promised to participate - including two dedicated to single topics: the economy and foreign affairs.

The additional debates should produce discussions that are less about “gotcha” and more about substance, Teneycke told reporters earlier this week.

“It’s a good thing for Canadians who want to hear more from leaders during an election campaign and have a chance to explore their policies and what they are saying more deeply,” he said.

Mulcair is refusing to take part in any debate that doesn’t include the prime minister, putting a question mark over the October debates organized by the television consortium, which Harper has declined to participate in.

The NDP say that Mulcair will confirm Monday what debates he will take part in.