Northern York Region pegged for significant growth, despite restrictions

Yorkregion.com
Aug. 18, 2015
By Chris Simon

It will be a bit of a balancing act, but northern York Region’s population should grow substantially in the coming decades.

That's the message from York Region chief planner Valerie Shuttleworth, who is projecting a large increase in population and employment numbers by 2041. She made a deputation on the anticipated growth to Newmarket council members last week.

According to Shuttleworth, the region's population is expected to jump from 1.14 million in 2014 to 1.79 million by 2041. Newmarket and Aurora will also see increases, though a more significant climb in numbers will occur in East Gwillimbury, which could actually equal or surpass those municipalities in population in the coming decades.

"If you divide it into an annual growth rate, it's nothing the region hasn't seen already," she said. "In fact, in the later years, the pace of growth tapers off a little bit. I don't see the forecasts as unrealistic. We actually have capacity to accommodate much more growth. We've invested an awful lot of money in infrastructure to support growth along our centres and corridors ... so we can accommodate more residents in higher-density areas."

By 2041, the population is projected to grow from the current 56,200 to 81,000 in Aurora, 85,700 to 114,900 in Newmarket and 24,300 to 108,700 in East Gwillimbury. The employment forecast shows Aurora will have 38,000 jobs in 2041, up from 27,000 in 2014. Newmarket will host 56,600 jobs, while EG will grow to 41,900, up from 42,700 and 9,500, respectively.

"The province dictates the numbers," East Gwillimbury Mayor Virginia Hackson said. "I'm always a little skeptical when we talk numbers connected to a date. We were expected to grow in the ’90s. We're 20 years later and it's just starting.”

The town’s large land mass means it will remain 70 per cent agriculture and green space, she said.

“(Growth) is a mixed bag,” she said. “I moved here for a rural community and I'm not naive to believe it's not going to change. Our world is changing and we're going to be a part of it. Managed properly, I believe we're going to have one of the most unique communities in the GTA."

East Gwillimbury should also meet employment targets because the municipality is attractive to businesses, Hackson said, noting it offers livable communities, opportunity for companies to grow, and direct access to Hwy. 404.

All figures are based on a scenario with no urban expansion, and could be altered based on the intensification model selected by regional council.

Several factors helped decide the forecast, including land supplies, changing demographics and economics, municipal policies, infrastructure capacity and provincial growth plan requirements, which set minimum intensification, employment and population targets.

Region staff members are also trying to ensure there's a good mix of accommodation and employment opportunities, Shuttleworth said.

"The region is charged with distributing those forecasts to each of the nine (York) municipalities," she said. "We're in the consultation an analysis stage. We do forecast work on an ongoing basis and we revisit every five years. We plan very carefully for the future.

“How we accommodate that growth and invest our dollars is going to affect how accepting residents are of that growth,” she continued. “It all fits together; we don't just let growth happen.

We take deliberate steps to look way into the future to make sure the decisions we make now pay off for existing and future residents."

Other politicians support the notion the projected growth is manageable.

"Newmarket's growth projections represent an approximate growth rate of 2% per year - the lowest projected growth rate in the region," Newmarket Regional Councillor John Taylor said in an email. "This rate of growth is both realistic and manageable. High growth rates can be difficult to manage and low growth rates can negatively affect the local economy. Current and future growth projections must balance the requirements to grow, with appropriate infrastructure spending and a strong local economy."

Aurora's remaining greenfield land, the 2C area, is expected to house a significant amount of growth within the next few years, and any other growth within the town will be restricted to the redevelopment of established areas, Aurora Mayor Geoff Dawe said.

"The numbers are realistic as they are based on approved lands for population and employment growth and existing and upcoming applications," he said.

The Promenade plan area on Yonge and Wellington streets and other areas may be redeveloped at higher densities, he said.

A preferred growth scenario and related policy direction could be presented to regional council in November.

The region is expected to adopt an Official Plan amendment in late 2016.