Federal election campaign could kick off on weekend if Parliament dissolved

Stephen Harper could visit the Governor General as early this weekend to dissolve Parliament and launch the longest federal election campaign in over a century.

Thestar.com
July 29, 2015
By Bruce Campion-Smith

Prime Minister Stephen Harper could visit Governor General David Johnston as early as this weekend to dissolve Parliament and launch the longest federal election campaign in more than a century.

Harper will be looking to fight off voter fatigue and beat back NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau to lead his Conservatives to a rare fourth term in government.

While the date of the next election is known - Oct. 19, thanks to fixed election date legislation - the start of the campaign has remained a mystery, known only to Harper and a small group of advisors.

Harper himself refused to drop any clues on Wednesday, telling Bloomberg News, “I don’t speculate and I particularly don’t speculate on my own actions.”

He would say only that Canadians would have a “big, clear choice” on Oct. 19.

But a Conservative strategist said later that the election launch could come this weekend as Harper looks to even the stakes with Trudeau and Mulcair, who have been on campaign-style tours in recent weeks.

“When people actually start campaigning ... it would make sense that would be in a formal campaign,” the strategist said.

At one point, the Tories were weighing whether to launch a leader’s tour, with media onboard, well ahead of the formal election call. But as of Wednesday, that possibility was off the table.
The Liberals and New Democrats vowed they will be ready whenever the election call comes.

“If it’s called Sunday, we’ll be ready. We’re ready to go,” Liberal party spokesperson Olivier Duchesneau said Wednesday in an interview.

NDP campaign adviser Brad Lavigne said it would be up to Harper to explain to Canadians why the need for a drawn out campaign.

“If he calls the election this early, he’ll have to explain to Canadians why he wants to spend millions in extra costs to taxpayers,” Lavigne said in a statement to the Star.

“No matter when the Conservatives call the election, Tom Mulcair is ready to defeat Stephen Harper and bring change to Ottawa,” he said.

An election call Sunday or Monday would set in motion a campaign topping 70 days, one of the longest in history and a marathon compared to the 37-day sprints of the political contests in 2008 and 2011.

Certainly, the indications of a looming election call are growing. Conservative ministers and MPs daily have been announcing new community infrastructure funding for projects of every description, from armouries to marinas to educational projects. This flurry of project approvals reflects an extra $1.6 billion in infrastructure spending that the government has approved for this year.

And several of Harper’s aides within the Prime Minister’s Office, including Rob Nicol, his director of communications, have taken leaves of absences from their government jobs until the day after the election, presumably to serve with the Conservative campaign.

The three leaders are already scheduled to meet in the first debate of the campaign in Toronto on Thursday.

For Harper, the coming campaign is a bid to lead his Conservatives to a rare fourth election win, campaigning on the issues of the economy and security.

He has been leading a government that has been looking long in the tooth as dozens of his MPs opted to leave politics, including veteran cabinet ministers such as James Moore, Peter MacKay and John Baird.

Mulcair is hoping to build on the historic success of Jack Layton, who in 2011 led the party from fourth place to official opposition status for the first time.

Riding high in the polls - especially since the surprising victory of their provincial cousins in the Alberta election this spring - the NDP is hoping that Canadians not only desire a change in government, but that they are ready to ask the orange team to be the ones to bring it.

In an effort to convince voters they are ready for that job, the NDP has been rolling out major policy proposals for nearly a year now, including their marquis promise to work with provinces and territories to create 1 million child care spaces costing no more than $15 a day.

Trudeau will be seeking to overcome the disasters of past votes, notably the 2011 election that knocked the Liberals to third place.

The campaign comes as the Conservatives deal with a series of setbacks on the economy and their promise to balance Ottawa’s books in 2015 after seven years of consecutive budget deficits.

On July 15, Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz said the country probably experienced below-zero economic growth in the first six months of the year, which fits the definition of an economic recession.

The central bank cut its forecast for growth in 2015 nearly in half and said the downturn from the oil price crunch was serious enough that the Bank of Canada needed to trim its key interest rate to a near-record low to boost the economy.

Then last week, based on the central bank’s prediction, federal budget watchdog Jean-Denis Frechette said the government would fail to meet its long-promised goal of eliminating the budget deficit this year and would instead run a $1-billion deficit.

The NDP and the Liberals said the Conservatives’ economic management was left in tatters by the recent developments.

“That was supposed to be the Conservatives’ hallmark branding, wasn’t it, balanced budget?” NDP leader Thomas Mulcair asked. “We now know that’s not going to be the case.”