Professor questions York Region job forecast

YorkRegion.com
April 30, 2015
Lisa Queen

A dramatic reversal of fortune during the past few years has a York University professor wondering if job forecasts for York Region are realistic.

“I don’t think they are (achievable). I think it’s telling people what the want to hear,” Prof. James McKellar, director of the real estate and infrastructure program at the university’s Schulich School of Business, said.

“If they are real, what is the magic dust that they are going to sprinkle that is going to do it?”

There has been dynamic change in lifestyles — away from people looking for the suburban way of life with a family in a single-family home with at least one vehicle to one where people want to live downtown, close to cultural and entertainment attractions and have no interest in owning a car, McKellar said.

“They (had) left the city for the suburbs because they felt crowded in the city and wanted the house and backyard and kids and white picket fence. It was an appealing lifestyle,” he said.

“Now, non-family households are the fastest growing part of the population. It’s a cultural shift.”

Since jobs follow people and companies in a global marketplace are willing to pay a premium to be near a highly skilled workforce, Toronto has seen its economic fortunes change in recent years, while the 905 job market has struggled, he said.

However, while regional chief planner Val Shuttleworth agrees York’s job growth could be better, she believes the region is taking steps to make York a place attractive to a new demographic of residents who will bring in new businesses and assist York in reaching provincially assigned employment benchmarks.

“Employment in York Region is a good news story. We are still growing; we are still adding jobs,” she said.

Along with a population expected to hit 1.8 million in 2041, the provincial government has said York will accommodate 900,000 jobs in the same time frame.

“Forecasting, whether at the local, the regional or the provincial level, is very difficult because there are so many assumptions and factors built in. So, are 900,000 jobs in York Region realistic? Yes. Will we actually achieve that? I hope so, but employment is much less predictable than residential growth, for example, because it’s affected by global economies, by immigration perhaps,” Shuttleworth said.

“I don’t think that 900,000 jobs in York Region is unrealistic, but it’s a forecast. It’s something we plan for and we do all kinds of work to achieve it to make it happen.”

How the new jobs are divvied up among municipalities depends on different intensification scenarios for growth.

For example, Newmarket, which grew by only 570 jobs between 2009 and 2014, is expected to grow from its current number of 42,800 jobs to between 55,000 to 56,600 positions by 2041, depending on which intensification model is followed.

By comparison, Aurora will grow from 21,900 jobs today to between 37,000 and 38,000 positions by 2041, while East Gwillimbury will grow from 7,400 to 41,900 to 48,900, Georgina will grow from 7,700 to 23,600 to 23,900, King Township will grow from 8,200 to 13,400 to 14,300, Markham will grow from 154,800 to 274,800 to 275,700, Richmond Hill will grow from 69,300 to 110,400 to 113,800, Vaughan will grow from 185,100 to 312,000 to 314,000 and Whitchurch-Stouffville will grow from 12,800 to 23,200 to 23,400.

Meanwhile, York’s employment grew by 13,300 jobs between mid-2013 and mid-2014, bringing the total number of jobs in the region to an estimated 564,000, according to an employment and industry report that went to council Thursday.

But jobs aren’t coming to York Region and other 905 regions the way they did during the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s, when nine of every 10 new jobs went to 905 communities and left Toronto’s employment landscape “decimated,” McKellar said.

York will continue to grow, McKellar said. For example, immigrants are often still looking for the suburban lifestyle.

But their kids aren’t. They want to be downtown, McKellar said.

Many single people who bought downtown condos, later have families and want to buy houses in Toronto, not the 905 region, McKellar said.

His position on employment prospects is reflected in a consultant’s report that went to regional council Thursday.

“Office development patterns in the GTA have shifted significantly over the past 15 years. The City of Toronto’s share of new office development has steadily increased from 12 per cent during the 1999 to 2003 period to 67 per cent during the 2009-2013 period,” according to the report from Watson and Associates Economists Ltd., which the region commissioned to investigate why its office sector was flagging.

“Over the same period, all 905 upper-tier municipalities have seen a decline in their share of the office development activity. The most significant has been in York Region, which has seen its share of new office market development decline from 29 per cent in 1999 to 2003 to 7 per cent in 2009 to 2013. This is reflected also in absolute terms, where development activity over the 2009 to 2013 period was about one-fifth of the level achieved during the 1999 to 2003 period.”

York Region hasn’t done anything wrong, but it has to change to appeal to society’s changing demographics if it wants to capture future jobs, McKellar said.

“Your basic dilemma is the good times are gone and they’re gone forever. It’s going to be hard for York to say, ‘Move to York, own a house, own a car and get a good job.’ It ain’t going to work,” he said.

“So, what does York Region do to compete in this different world? I’m not saying it’s a doomsday scenario. I’m suggesting you have to wake up and realize there has been a shift.”

The region is in the process of shifting gears by creating corridors and centres featuring an urban vibe and transit options, although the process takes time, Shuttleworth said.

“From a planning perspective, the days of doing 50-foot singles (single-family houses) with the white picket fence and Joey and Jane going to baseball games, that scenario is never going to be as prevalent as it was in the ’60s and ’70s,” she said.

“I think there will always be a demand for that, but the demand is shifting, though I wouldn’t say it’s all gone. It’s shifting. People want more of that urban lifestyle.”

Going forward, Shuttleworth is positive about the region’s employment future.

“I think York Region is very well positioned for the future and capturing wherever the market will go on the employment side,” she said.