Cities that ring Toronto boast unemployment below 6%

Theglobeandmail.com
April 10, 2015
By Michael Babad

Toronto region does well

Several of the centres that ring Toronto now boast jobless rates below 6 per cent.

Toronto itself still suffers from unemployment at a high 7.3 per cent, but BMO Nesbitt Burns notes today that even that’s down markedly from a year ago.

As The Globe and Mail’s Tavia Grant reports, Canada gained 28,700 jobs in March, though that was entirely on the back of part-time hiring, while full-time work suffered a setback.

The national unemployment rate held steady at 6.8 per cent, according to Statistics Canada.

There are, of course, regional variations, notably in Alberta, where the jobless rate is on the rise.

But there are interesting developments in the Toronto area, highlighted today by BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic.

“We continue to highlight positive labour market trends not in, but around, Toronto,” he said.

Mr. Kavcic pointed specifically to Brantford, whose jobless rate now stands at 5.4 per cent, Guelph at 4.8 per cent, Hamilton at 5.6 per cent and Kitchener at 5.5 per cent.

Some of those centres are doing well because of manufacturing, though employment in that sector is near a record low, and construction, he said.

There’s also the fact that many people are commuting to jobs in Toronto.

Some other Ontario cities haven’t fared as well, such as Windsor at 11.1 per cent, Peterborough at 7.8 per cent and Oshawa at 7.5 per cent.

The jobless rate across the province now stands at 6.9 per cent, but it’s down by 0.4 of a percentage point over the last year.

“The rate is now just a tick above the national average, and if should move below it later this year, as we expect, it would be a development nine years in the making,” Mr. Kavcic said, noting that that last occurred in mid-2006.

Over all, Canada’s employment map is mixed.

And it didn’t happen today, but the national jobless rate is probably still heading higher.

The question is how high.

First, there’s the oil shock that has already sparked a spike in unemployment in Canada’s oil-sensitive regions. Then there’s the shutdown of Target Corp. in Canada, and the loss of 17,000 retail jobs there. Then there’s government restraint.

This morning’s report from Statistics Canada showed the country gained about 29,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate held steady at 6.8 per cent.

But that in no way, shape or form tells the story of what’s playing out in the labour market.

Here’s what happened in March: Canada gained 56,800 part-time jobs, but lost 28,200 full-time positions. In fact, over the first quarter of the year as a whole, the country’s job gains of 63,000 are because of part-time gains. Having said that, the gains of 138,000 over the past year was attributed to full-time work.

Let’s look at the oil-sensitive provinces: Alberta gained jobs, but its unemployment rate continued to climb, to 5.5 per cent from 5.3 per cent. The jobless rate also spiked in Newfoundland and Labrador, to 13.3 per cent, though it dipped in Saskatchewan to 4.4 per cent.

“Unexpected strength in energy-rich provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan complemented expected gains in Central Canada,” National Bank senior economist Krishen Rangasamy said of the March numbers.

“But not all is rosy. All of the job gains were part-time. Moreover, there job creation was tilted towards government, with the private sector not making up for the prior month’s loss.”

In the main manufacturing provinces, where it’s hoped that the oil-induced drop in the Canadian dollar will help their economies, unemployment held steady in Ontario at 6.9 per cent and rose edged up in Quebec to 7.5 per cent.

As well as the oil shock, the shutdown of Target in Canada has yet to play out fully, though this will happen over the course of the next few months.

Canada’s jobless rate is projected by some to stick stubbornly close to the 7-per-cent mark, at least through the end of this year.

Still others believe it may well top 7 per cent, and hold at uncomfortable levels through to the end of 2016.

This is all playing out amid an election campaign in troubled Alberta, and in the run-up to the April 21 federal budget.

Federal Finance Minister Joe Oliver met yesterday with several private-sector economists as he prepares the budget, which he has pledged to balance, and was told to expect a modest showing this year.

“The economists noted that the sharp decline in global crude oil prices and weak global economy were affecting Canada’s economy,” the Finance Department said.

“However, they also noted that Canada’s underlying economic fundamentals remain strong, and that they expect real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to average about 2 per cent for 2015 as a whole.”

Today, in a new forecast, Toronto-Dominion Bank said the economic news for the oil regions will only “get worse.”

The study by deputy chief economist Derek Burleton and economist Jonathan Bendiner projects, for example, that Alberta’s economy will “grind to a virtual standstill” this year, with growth of just 0.5 per cent, before regaining ground to 1.8 per cent in 2016.

Unemployment, they predict, will average 5.6 per cent this year, and 5.9 per cent next.

They see the jobless rates of Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador climbing from last year as well, to 4.9 per cent and 5 per cent for the former, and 12.5 per cent and 12.8 per cent for the latter.