Canadian climate-change love-in produced less than meets the eye: Walkom
Justin Trudeau will go to Paris climate-change summit armed only with Stephen Harper's inadequate promises.

TheStar.com
Nov. 24, 2015
Thomas Walkom

When all the fripperies are stripped away, Justin Trudeau’s climate-change love-in with the premiers has produced three harsh realities.

First, the prime minister is heading off to the Paris conference on global warming next week committed only to the weak pledges made by his Conservative predecessor, Stephen Harper.

Two, Canada is not on track to meet even these promises.

Three, most other countries aren’t doing any better. As scientists told Canada’s assembled first ministers Monday, the international commitments made to date won’t achieve the goal of limiting the average global temperature increase to two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

This is not to say that Monday’s meeting was meaningless. The fact that Canada’s senior levels of government agree on fighting climate change is an achievement in itself.

The fact that Alberta has taken a leading role in this fight is remarkable.

Still, it is not clear that Canadian politicians fully recognize the urgency.

If the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is correct, the world is heading for disaster by the end of this century unless immediate actions to reduce carbon emissions are taken.
The longer we postpone these actions, scientists say, the more likely it is that we will face mass flooding, drought, civil unrest and other crises resulting from extreme weather.

Yet in Canada, urgency is hardly the order of the day.

Jean Chrétien’s Liberal government did nothing. Harper’s Conservative government did a little more (it followed the U.S. lead on limiting auto emissions) but not nearly enough.

Much has been made of Ontario’s decision to join Quebec and California in a so-called cap and trade scheme to limit carbon emissions.

But as my colleague, Martin Regg Cohn, has pointed out Ontario has been unconscionably slow in attacking climate change and won’t join the Quebec-California scheme until 2017.

Even more has been made of Alberta’s plan. Rachel Notley, the province’s New Democratic Party premier has won kudos from both environmentalists and oil industry executives for her scheme to deal with climate change.

At Monday’s first ministers’ conference, she was the star of the show.

In terms of sheer politics, the accolades are deserved. Notley’s decision has provided a boost to those worried about global warming.

Environmentalists reckon that if even Alberta is willing to deal with climate change, other provinces will have no excuse for inaction.

In terms of content, though, Notley’s proposals are less praiseworthy.

Her plan to levy carbon taxes, limit tarsands emissions and phase out coal-fired electricity generating plants means Alberta’s rate of growth of greenhouse gases will slow.

But the actual tonnage of these gases won’t go down. By its own estimates, the province will still be emitting slightly more carbon in 2030 than it is now.

Nor will oil producers be unduly disadvantaged. The International Energy Agency calculates that roughly two-thirds of the globe’s fossil-fuel reserves must be left in the ground if the world is to meet the two-degree Celsius target. Others have estimated that roughly one-third of proven oil reserves must remain untapped if this goal is to be met.

Yet under Notley’s plan, the tarsands will continue to be mined. Emissions from heavy oil developments will be allowed to increase by 43 per cent before they are capped.

No wonder the petroleum industry is pleased.

Where exactly Trudeau stands on all of this is unclear. As promised, he is working with the provinces. As promised, he plans to hold another first ministers’ conference within three months of the Paris summit to see if Canada can’t, maybe, do better than it has so far.

As always, he seems sunnily optimistic.

Does he have his own targets in mind for limiting greenhouse gases or does he see his role as simply brokering between the premiers? We don’t yet know.

We know that he is willing to use the carrot — to spend money to persuade premiers to come on side. Is he willing to use the stick — Ottawa’s constitutional authority to impose carbon taxes — in those provinces that won’t exact such levies themselves? We don’t know that either.

Does he really understand the need to move quickly? Do any of us?