Understanding growth forecast discrepancies

NRU
Nov. 18, 2015

Ryerson’s Centre for Urban Research and Land Development released a report November 3 exploring the significant differences between population growth forecasts prepared by the province in 2013 for the Growth Plan and actual growth as documented by Statistics Canada for 2011 and 2014.

The report-A Look at Reasons Why the Growth Plan Population Forecasts May Be Off - Target-authored by Dr. Frank Clayton and Justin Shin, concludes that the discrepancy in the population numbers can be explained by the considerable shortfall in municipal population beyond the outer Greenbelt boundary (particularly in the west such as the Waterloo region), the higher than anticipated growth in Toronto and the shortfall in the 905 portions of the GTHA centred on York and Durham regions.