York Region growth scenario - Sticking to the minimum

NRU
Nov. 11, 2015
By Geordie Gordon

Rejecting staff's preferred growth scenario, York Region committee of the whole indicated its unwillingness to commit to a higher intensification target than the provincial prescribed minimum as the region plans for growth to 2041. Instead it directed staff to provide more detailed analysis on a growth scenario with a lower intensification rate.

Previously council had directed staff to study three growth scenarios-40 per cent, 50 per cent and no urban expansion. However staff recommended an intensification rate of 45 per cent, which is higher than the Growth Plan’s prescribed minimum of 40 per cent, as a way to balance the objectives of the York Region Official Plan and realities of the housing market.

York Region planning and economic development vice chair and Markham regional councillor Joe Li explained that the building industry is looking to keep the intensification rates at the provincial minimum to give it greater flexibility when it comes to what housing types are built. This influenced the committee’s decision to study the lower intensification option further.

“The [building] industry was thinking, if you put 45 per cent, does it mean more townhouses, more condos and all those things. They would still love to have some kind of leeway to build the single-detached [homes] ... What they are arguing is the provincial government is asking for 40 per cent, why would we try to go beyond that?” he told NRU.

Surprised by the committee decision, Urban Land Institute executive director Richard Joy told NRU in an email he was disappointed that York Region did not embrace a higher intensification rate at its committee meeting. He also highlighted the fact that there was a review underway and the provincial minimum could change.

“York Region’s urban intensification ceiling appears to be the province’s 10-year old intensification floor. All eyes are now on the Crombie Report and whether the province will raise its floor during the legislative Growth Plan review. “

York Region policy, research and forecasting manager Paul Bottomley says that based on the analysis done on the three scenarios, a compromise between the 40 per cent and 50 per cent scenarios represents a good balance of objectives.

“We went through an extensive analysis exercise, so we looked at land use planning, infrastructure planning, fiscal analysis, and the market piece was the final piece. And from all of that work, it was staff ’s opinion that the 45 per cent, [offered a] balance between the goals in the official plan, vision 2051 and the growth plan with the market and fiscal analysis. We though that 45 was an appropriate balance.”

Bottomley also cautioned that while the committee did not adopt staff ’s recommendation at its November 5 meeting, the 45 per cent scenario is not completely off the table.

“[Committee] didn’t vote against it, they are asking us to do a comparison [of] the 45 [and] the 40, so they want us to do some more work and analysis and come back with more detail between the two.”

Staff warn, the committee’s decision may impact the timing of the growth plan conformity amendment which has to be completed by June 17, 2018.

“We do have a prescribed schedule that we’ve been working on for the last year or so, and we were intending to bring back a recommended scenario in the second quarter of 2016 ...,

We’re trying to figure out now exactly what that’s going to mean in terms of whether there’s going to be some delay on this or not. We don’t know for sure yet,” Bottomley said.

The committee of the whole recommendations will be considered by regional council at its November 19 meeting.

York Region initiated a municipal comprehensive review in 2014 to ensure that the region conforms to the updated 2041 growth forecasts in Amendment 2 of the Growth Plan. The review, still ongoing, resulted in the formulation of three draft growth scenarios for the region and nine local municipalities, a process that was completed in April.