Need for change cited as voters’ main motivator in Oct. 19 election, poll shows

A new poll by Forum Research done in the two days following the Oct. 19 election finds that “change” was a prime motivator for voters

Thestar.com
Oct. 23, 2015
By Donovan Vincent

The leading reason Canadians voted Oct. 19 was the need for change in Ottawa, according to a new public opinion poll by Forum Research conducted in the two days following the federal election.

When asked “Which one political issue had the most effect on your vote?” the need for change in Ottawa was the top pick, with 28 per cent of respondents choosing this response.

The next most popular choice was jobs and the economy (24 per cent of respondents), and 15 per cent said ethics in government was the single political issue that most influenced their vote.

One per cent mentioned the corruption trial of Senator Mike Duffy.

Five per cent of respondents said it was the ban on the niqab and 8 per cent cited national security and terrorism.

“These findings confirm beyond a doubt that this was a change election,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said in a statement.

Bozinoff noted that prime minister-elect Justin Trudeau’s promise to run three deficits and use funds to invest in infrastructure was a leading reason cited by respondents who switched their vote. Respondents were asked “which of the following occurrences was the main reason you changed your vote?”

Twenty-nine per cent of respondents who switched to the Liberals listed this campaign plank as the main reason they changed sides, Forum found.

Among the other key findings in the Forum poll:

When asked which endorsements improved my image of the party, former prime minister Jean Chrétien’s endorsement of Justin Trudeau and the Liberals was the top pick with 21 per cent of respondents choosing him.

Seventy-five per cent or more said endorsements during the campaign by well-known personalities such as Chrétien, hockey icon Wayne Gretzky, and councillor Rob Ford and brother Doug didn’t improve or had no impact on their image of the party in question. In fact, 91 per cent said Conservative endorsements by the Ford brothers didn’t improve or impact their image of the Tories.

When asked “What is the main reason you voted for the candidate you did?” 28 per cent of respondents said the party most influenced their vote - not the local candidate - while 19 per cent said it was the party leader. Only 14 per cent said they voted for the local candidate they liked best.

•When asked “When did you decide which party you were going to vote for?” 41 per cent said they decide before the election was even called. Forum found that 30 per cent decided after the election was called but before election day, and 17 per cent said it was after the election was called, but before Labour Day.

Nine per cent made up their mind on Oct. 19 - election day - and 2 per cent said they waited until they were actually marking their ballots in the voting booth to decide.

One per cent said they can’t recall when they decided.

Asked “How long did it take you to vote, in total?” 57 per cent of respondents said they waited five minutes or less to vote, and 20 per cent said it took between five to 10 minutes despite heavier-than-normal voter turnout during advance polls and on Oct. 19.

Eight per cent said they waited between 10 and 15 minutes, while 6 per cent said it took more than half an hour to vote.

And when asked “How interested were you in this election campaign?” 62 per cent of respondents told the pollster they were “very interested” in the election campaign, and 26 per cent said they were somewhat interested.

Nine per cent told Forum they were not very interested, while 3 per cent said they were not at all interested.

The Forum poll was conducted Oct. 20 and Oct. 21, and the results are based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,451 randomly selected Canadians, 18 years of age or older. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Forum’s poll is weighted statistically by age, region and other variables to ensure the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest census data. The weighting formula has been shared with the Star and raw polling results are housed at the University of Toronto’s political science department’s data library.