Representation change in GTHA - Electoral shift

NRU
Oct. 21, 2015
By Leah Wong

In the federal election this week the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area experienced a fundamental shift in its landscape, from blue to red. Voters elected a resounding Liberal majority, sending many new members to Ottawa.

The Liberals regained ground lost in the 2011 federal election, winning in a majority of GTHA ridings. Outside of Toronto, the region will have 25 Liberal members, 12 Conservative members and two NDP members when the new government is formed. Within Toronto, the Liberals will represent all of the city’s 26 ridings when Prime Minister-elect Justin Trudeau forms the government.

Of the 39 ridings that comprise the GTHA outside of Toronto, only 10 elected incumbent MPs. The 29 new members that will be sworn in have a range of backgrounds and political experience-including two former MPs that were defeated in the 2011 election.

Voter turnout across Canada was up in the election with preliminary reports from Elections Canada showing 68.49 per cent of eligible voters casting a ballot, compared to 61.1 per cent in the 2011 election. Preliminary results show that about 68.33 per cent of Ontario electors voted.

Also, in Ontario, for the first time in 30 years the same party is in power at both the provincial and federal levels. The last overlap ended in 1985 when Premier Frank Miller and Prime Minister Brian Mulroney were leaders of their respective Progressive Conservative parties.

With majority governments at both the federal and provincial levels Ontarians will get a reprieve from elections for a few years. Aside from by-elections, the next scheduled elections are in 2018 with the province heading to the polls in the spring and municipalities in October. Leading up to the next federal election-likely to be held in October 2019-the NDP and Conservatives will have to decide the future of their leadership. The Conservatives have announced that Prime Minister Stephen Harper will resign as leader, while the NDP have said Tom Mulcair will continue as leader.

With the preliminary results in for all ridings the themes that have emerged across the region are defeat of Conservative incumbents, re-election of former Liberal MPs, by-election rematches with differing results and election of former councilors that is causing a ripple effect across municipal governments.

In total 15 incumbents were defeated across the region-14 Conservative members and one NDP member.

While many of the incumbents were defeated by new candidates, there were a number of familiar faces in these races. Former Liberal MP Mark Holland defeated Ajax Conservative MP Chris Alexander, in a rematch of their 2011 race. Whitby Conservative MP Pat Perkins, who was elected in Oshawa- Whitby in a November 2014 by-election, lost to by-election runner-up Liberal candidate Celina Caesar-Chavannes.

There were also a number of candidates who had previously served. Like Holland, Mississauga Centre Liberal MP-elect Omar Alghabra also served as an MP in the past.

There are also MP-elects for all three parties that have previously served at other levels of government. Former City of Barrie councillor Alex Nuttall was elected in the new riding of Barrie-Springwater-Oro Medonte for the Conservatives. Hamilton East-Stoney Creek Liberal MP-elect Bob Bratina previously served as Hamilton’s mayor. Former Vaughan regional councillor Deb Schulte was elected for the Liberals in King- Vaughan. Former Liberal MPP Peter Fonseca made the jump to federal politics, winning in Mississauga East-Cooksville.

Following their election Monday there are also a number of sitting councillors from across the GTHA that will have to vacate their municipal seats. As the municipal election was just a year ago it is likely this will result in a series of local by-elections.

Barrie ward 7 councillor John Brassard was elected for the Conservatives in Barrie-Innisfi l, Hamilton ward 7 councillor Scott Duvall was elected for the NDP in Hamilton Mountain, Oakville ward 2 councillor Pam Damoff was elected for the Liberals in Oakville-North Burlington and Pickering ward 1 councillor Jennifer O’Connell was elected for the Liberals in Pickering-Uxbridge.

Once these seats have been declared vacant, municipal councils will have to decide whether to hold a by-election or appoint a councillor for the remainder of the term.