20 YEARS: UrbanToronto Looks Forward 20 Years

Urbantoronto.ca
Nov. 1, 2023
Rick Muller

In marking 20 years of UrbanToronto this year, it has been both illuminating and educational to look back to see how Toronto has changed since 2003. From changes in approaches to development, the reach to the skies in building heights, the challenges transit has presented, or the phenomenal growth in population, Toronto and the GTHA have become an entirely different metropolis over the last two decades.

So, now it’s time to look forward to the next twenty years. What kind of city will Toronto be in 2043? Will the incredible growth continue unabated? Will the city endure, or perhaps more importantly, is it properly positioned to accommodate its current pace of growth in order to remain a functional, livable city attractive to immigration and business investment?

To quote the detective serials from the 1950s, while ‘there are a million stories in the naked city’, dusting off crystal ball predictions is probably better served by focusing on three big picture issues which will perhaps have the greatest impact on Toronto moving forward: where will we live; how will we live; and how will we get around in the Toronto of 2043.

Urban sprawl has been one of the most noticeable changes in the GTHA in the last twenty years. In 2003, you could drive from Bowmanville to Hamilton, or from Toronto north to Aurora and still encounter some farms or empty land. Today that would be extremely rare… and if there is an empty field, it probably has a ‘For Sale’ or ‘Coming Soon’ sign on it.

Today, the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area is a contiguous urban region covering 8,244km². That’s the official number. Unofficially, the GTHA sprawl stretches even further. And it comes at a price in swallowing up farms and food lands.

“It’s an issue that needs to be addressed,” says Edward Skira, President and Co-Publisher of UrbanToronto. “We may not be able to depend on California as much as we do now if warming and lack of water continues to be an issue in that state and other such areas. So let’s rely on ourselves and focus on local food sources as much as we can.”

In looking forward 20 years, Skira says sprawl to the west of Toronto will probably be the strongest. “We’re sprawling in every direction but history shows us western sprawl will lead the way,” he says. “Mississauga is massive, drive on the QEW to Niagara Region and you’re seeing things you weren’t seeing even five years ago. In the not-too-distant future, Niagara and Kitchener-Waterloo Regions will be considered part of Toronto. Toronto’s suburbs are generally much denser than in America because the houses are much closer together. Dallas or Houston can grow in every direction but obviously Lake Ontario to our south has an impact on the direction of our sprawl.”

Enhancements in infrastructure will be required, such as highways and transit, and commercial hubs will be required to ensure people who move out of the city for affordable housing can indeed work there and not have to commute.

“The province is planning two highways up north, Highway 413 to replicate Highway 407 but further north, as well as the Bradford By-Pass meant to go from Highway 400 to Highway 404,” says Skira. “There are also plans to extend Highway 404 north to Lake Simcoe as there is a lot of land up there. But the question is will offices and/or factories move to places like Innisfil or Orangeville to reduce commutes. Governments can zone for offices all they want, but will the offices show up?”

Where we build, what we build, and how we build has changed dramatically in these last two decades as changes in development have taken firm hold on the building industry. In 2003 few people would have heard of the terms ‘net zero emissions’ or ‘lower carbon footprint.’ Even fewer could have envisioned a park connecting CIBC SQUARE phases one and two over railway tracks.

In the aftermath of the pandemic, the future of commercial office development is a hot topic and colour Skira an optimist in feeling that will continue over the next twenty years.

“I suspect office development will continue after this hiccup as the city and its population are still growing and there will be demand,” he says. “Most companies are beginning to push back on work-from-home and the pendulum will come back to working in the office. There wasn’t a lot of office space built in the 1990s but afterwards there was. There’s always going to be a need for office space.”

That will most likely change our skyline views in the next two decades, with some areas prime to undergo radical transformations in Skira’s opinion.

“Our Toronto Islands skyline view will change mostly to the east and the lower Don and Eastern Avenue areas, which could see up to 10 million ft² of development,” says Skira. “Infill density will continue along Yonge Street at St Clair, Davisville, Eglinton, Steeles and further north, while Vaughan, Markham,  Scarborough, Etobicoke, Pickering, Mississauga and Hamilton will all change and broaden and become most impressive. Toronto is different in that we have a lot of tall buildings in the suburbs. Outside of its downtown, Chicago is relatively flat. With our intensification in the suburbs, we’re growing taller outside of downtown and there are now clusters everywhere and that will continue.”

The elephant in the room for a healthy, vibrant and livable Toronto and the GTHA in 2043 remains transit. After decades of neglect, government finally realized that a massive investment in transit infrastructure and mobility, ie; getting people from A to B, was required as transit fuels the engine of the GTHA and therefore the Provincial and Canadian economy. Toronto represents 50% of Ontario’s GDP and 20% of Canada’s GDP. While there are now shovels in the ground, we still have a long way to go but at least the momentum has begun and hopefully, it will continue.

“Continuing momentum all depends on who is running the province, but the current government sees real value in investing in transit,” says Skira. “GO Transit growth has been impressive but there is still a lot of work to do, but if governments were smart these investments will continue as population growth will be continuing and they are going to have to continue to make it easy to move around.”

On Skira’s watchlist for the coming twenty years are two major transit projects. “GO Transit expansion will be key with all day service in both ways, and the continuing electrification of GO Transit will be a priority,” he says. “And of course, in Toronto proper, the Ontario Line will be a major game-changer.”

Almost every week on UrbanToronto you can read about another massive residential proposal, with many planned for Yonge Street between Eglinton and Union Stations. It begs the question of how Line 1 TTC platforms on that stretch of the TTC can possibly handle the overcrowding these new condominium developments are sure to cause.

“Condos don’t create as much traffic as you think,” observes Skira. “Office populations have declined since the pandemic and it’s hard to say if people will be commuting as much as five years ago. The Ontario Line will make a big difference in taking some pressure off the Yonge line and a multi-billion-dollar project is scheduled to dramatically expand the Bloor-Yonge Station, so I think we’ll be okay on Yonge Street.”

Skira also believes planners will have to be imaginative in their thinking to assist in people-moving in the future, especially East-to-West across the region, perhaps converting existing rail lines into rapid transit corridors. “A northern East-West line perhaps from Oshawa to Kitchener/Waterloo should be considered. Some rail lines not used for transit now may need to change so you can seamlessly and quickly move between those two areas and not have to go downtown to transit at Union Station. The Eglinton West LRT is now under construction, which will help get crosstown,” he says.

Twenty years ago, we probably didn’t envision urban density to exist in such a massive way at such places as Vaughan or Humber Bay Shores. A clue to such nodes in 2043 is places where transit stations now exist and development and further transit infrastructure will follow.

“There are probably 20 to 30 nodes across the GTHA which transit is focused on to assist in development and this won’t happen out of the blue,” says Skira. “Eglinton Golden Mile for example will be significantly different in 20 years as big box stores will be replaced with condos. Scarborough Town Centre, Markham Centre, Mississauga City Centre and the downtown areas of Oakville and Hamilton are building up the transit infrastructure to facilitate development. What is key is making sure the Airport is properly connected to the rest of the region by transit. Mississauga and Brampton transit, along with the Finch West LRT are part of the solution. But perhaps most importantly is wherever transit is built, interconnectivity is extremely important and a one-system/one-pass for everyone going everywhere should be implemented, like most major global metropolitan areas, and there are recently announced plans to move in that direction.”

Given the changes in our city since 2003, It’s impossible to say with complete certainty what kind of city Toronto will be in 2043. What significant changes will impact it and the surrounding region in the next two decades to ensure its vibrancy and livability for millions of people to enjoy. One thing is for certain though – the future promises to be exciting and interesting, no doubt filled with notable achievements, challenges to be addressed and opportunities to be taken advantage of.