Advance votes for Toronto mayor up 12%. What does that mean for total turnout?
The number of advance votes for Toronto mayor was up 12 per cent over ballots cast early in last October’s municipal election. Could the lack of an incumbent be driving interest?
Thestar.com
June 15, 2023
Janet Hurley
On Saturday, as part of a day of errands, Farzana Doctor swung by Ourland Community Centre in South Etobicoke to vote for Toronto’s next mayor.
She and her partner Reyan Naim zipped in and out at the advance poll -- one of 50 across the city offering an opportunity to vote well before election day on Monday June 26. “Hey #Toronto, advance polls are open!” Doctor exclaimed in a tweet as she exited.
Doctor and Naim were two of 129,745 people who voted at advance polls over six days from June 8 to 13 -- a nearly 12 per cent increase compared to the 115,911 voters who cast their ballots in eight days of advance voting in last October’s municipal election.
Tuesday saw the biggest crowds -- some 38,621 eligible voters -- for the highest single day turnout at an advance poll since Toronto’s amalgamation in 1998, according to the city.
At noon on Saturday, it took Doctor mere minutes. “There was zero lineup.There were way more people (later) at IKEA,” the writer and psychotherapist said with a laugh.
Voters are increasingly turning up to vote early at elections for all levels of government, said Aaron Moore, an associate professor at the University of Winnipeg who has written about Toronto politics. He puts it down to awareness and convenience.
But, he warned, this phenomenon doesn’t necessarily translate to higher total voter turnout. “It’s the people who normally turn out on election day who are just turning out earlier,” said Moore, who is also a fellow at the University of Toronto’s Institute on Municipal Finance and Governance.
Doctor is one of those. She always votes, and tries to do so in advance polls because she’s never sure what her schedule will be like on election day.
That said, the fact that there is no incumbent could shake things up. There are 102 candidates vying for the mayor’s job.
“When you have an election that's competitive and people are really invested in it, they're more likely to turn out,” said Moore. “Whereas when John Tory was running for re-election over and over again, people just kind of assumed he was going to win, so they didn't really bother.”
In fact, the lowest total voter turnout in a Toronto municipal election in more than two decades was last October, at 30 per cent, when Tory ran successfully for a third term before resigning months later after admitting to a relationship with a staffer.
Doctor observed in the last election that people said Tory was going to win, so what was the point. “Perhaps people are a little bit more interested and invested this time around because they think they can make a difference. I hope.”
Moore said it’s too early to say whether new “strong mayor” powers granted by Doug Ford’s provincial government have motivated people to be more concerned about who will take over Toronto’s top job, but it is something in the back of Doctor’s mind.
“Toronto has a lot of problems. They're not insurmountable, but they do require really good leadership,” she said. “So I just really wanted a candidate that will be able to stand up against Ford and lead with some values that are congruent with my own.”
For Toronto’s more than 1.89 million eligible electors, there will be 1,445 voting locations set up across Toronto on June 26 from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m.