‘It’s the number one issue for us’: Why renters could be a force in deciding Toronto’s mayoral race

The number of Toronto households who rent increased by about 25 per cent from 2011 to 2021 --- and candidates are taking notice.

thestar.com
May 23, 2023

It wasn’t their forever home, but it was their 10-year plan.

Lindsay Blackwell and her husband, Adam Vincent McKinlay, moved into a two-bedroom apartment in the Church-Wellesley Village in September 2021 while expecting their first child.

The unit was large by Toronto standards --- at one point it was home to a building superintendent who knocked down a wall to combine it with a bachelor unit next door. McKinlay made the space their own, adding a false bookcase with a secret door between the nursery and his art studio. It was rent-controlled and cost just over $2,000 a month. They could picture spending the next decade there and watching their kids grow.

But a developer’s recent proposal to tear down their building for a new condo may have foiled their plans. If they have to leave, there are few affordable options for them to stay in the area.

And they’ll be taking their frustration to the ballot box.

“I haven’t cared that much about an election that I can remember at the municipal level,” Blackwell, a 39-year-old public servant, said of Toronto’s June mayoral race.

“It’s the number one issue for us.”

The couple is among a growing population of renters in the city, who observers say could play a crucial role in deciding who takes over as its next mayor --- spurred by angst over ever-rising rents and the threat of evictions or displacements.

Unlike the last civic election, which was forecast early as a victory for John Tory, numerous front-runners for the mayor’s chair have emerged this year, and many candidates seem to have taken notice of the simmering ire over rental issues.

Already, contenders have been offering up tenant-specific proposals --- ranging from city hall taking a more active role in rental construction, to bulking up an existing municipal program that buys smaller, low-rent buildings to keep them affordable.

To Chiara Padovani, a York South---Weston tenant union leader who ran for council last fall --- and nearly usurped an incumbent with a campaign focused heavily on renter issues --- this is a moment when candidates should be courting the rising tenant population citywide.

“(Renters are) a growing voter block in the city of Toronto, and political platforms and political candidates need to be able to speak to the very real struggles --- and vulnerabilities --- that tenants face,” she said.

In the last decade, census data has borne out what many Torontonians have felt anecdotally --- home ownership rates are down, and the number of renter households has increased sharply, by about 25 per cent from 2011 to 2021. The cost of buying an average home uncoupled with incomes around 2000, which means taking the leap to owning has become much harder --- especially for those who’ve inked leases recently and are spending sky-high amounts on rent.

Yet, Padovani believes Toronto’s homeowners have long had the ear of its decision-makers.

She believes candidates are more likely to knock on the door of a single family home in a lowrise neighbourhood than an apartment in a rental tower. She’s seen community meetings where homeowners have represented a loud voice on city planning matters --- at times, voicing misconceptions such as rental buildings lowering their neighbourhood’s property values.

“The cards are so heavily stacked against us,” she said.

They’re also up against a persistent suggestion that tenants simply vote less often than their homeowner counterparts.

In some jurisdictions, there is evidence of lower voter turnout among renters. According to the United States Census Bureau, American homeowners voted more often in the 2022 U.S. congressional elections than renters, with turnout rates of 58.1 per cent to 36.5 per cent. (Canada’s federal labour force survey on voter apathy does not provide turnout data that separates renters and homeowners.)

Locally, though, a 2014 Maytree Foundation study found there was no correlation in Toronto’s wards between voter turnout and tenant population size. It noted Toronto’s renter-heavy neighbourhood of Thorncliffe Park actually boasted one of the city’s highest turnout rates in past elections.

Other factors did correlate to turnout --- such as lower voting rates in areas with a higher proportion of newcomers, and to a lesser degree a larger voter turnout in higher income areas.

There were outliers to these findings, the study cautioned --- and turnout increased when there were competitive races for the mayoral or councillor seat.

The prevailing sentiment that tenants vote less, it said, stemmed from the idea that since “homeowners directly pay property taxes to city hall, and recognize the impact of local government on the value of their property, they have a greater stake in the outcome of local elections.”

In some parts of the city, renters have been left feeling ignored. In examining voter apathy in past races, the Star heard from tenants who felt their day-to-day realities were unlikely to be remedied by casting a vote. Speaking with residents of St. James Town North --- a dense, low-income, tenant-heavy neighbourhood --- in 2021, several said they felt campaigners were focused on home ownership, and they had little faith politicians would deliver fixes for renters.

Tenant advocates are hoping this time around will be different.

Padovani sees the tiny margin between ballots cast for her campaign and that of Frances Nunziata last fall --- a difference of just 94 votes, in a race where more than 21,000 people voted --- as a signal that frustration over rental issues is leading to traction at the ballot box.

Douglas Kwan, director of legal services at the Advocacy Centre for Tenants Ontario, believes tenants could be a powerful voting force, especially given how broad that group has become.

“We see more and more people who are rooming with each other, people who have made the decision to stay in relationships longer than they (would) have to in order to afford rents,” Kwan said. “It’s everyone --- young professionals, families, seniors --- and they’re all struggling because Toronto is not an affordable city to live in.”

However, the major question to Matti Siemiatycki --- a University of Toronto professor in geography and city planning --- is whether renters will vote cohesively, or if tenants will be split over other issues.

It isn’t an inevitable conclusion that renters will vote similarly, he noted.

“Whether it’s urban and suburban, or motorist and cyclist and pedestrian, there are all sorts of other dynamics that people see as important to their identity and interests,” Siemiatycki said. “I think that’s a big question in this campaign.”

Housing issues overall are certainly more prominent in public policy and campaign conversations today than they were even a few years back, Siemiatycki said.

“In past elections, transit was often a really front and centre issue,” he said, noting former mayor Rob Ford’s focus on subways and then-candidate Tory referencing his SmartTrack transit pitch on lawn signs during the 2014 municipal race.

Now, housing seems to be “top of the agenda” at all levels of government and across party affiliations. “The campaigns respond to what people are interested in,” Siemiatycki said.

As for Blackwell and McKinlay, they’re still undecided --- and uncertain about their future.

Many of the candidates are promising affordable housing, but they’re poring over platforms to parse out the details, and see what contenders are actually offering renters like them.

“I don’t think that renters have typically been considered important stakeholders for any politician in recent history,” Blackwell said. “Politicians don’t necessarily realize that there’s an entire generation, many of whom have been completely disenfranchised by policies that preceded them.”

Under current laws and bylaws, the developer proposing to raze their building will have to offer compensation and may need to offer a comparable unit in the new building. But with a potential lengthy displacement looming, they’re not sure what the next 10 years will look like now.

“It’s crazy to me how much income renting eats up, and you cannot ever really get ahead,” Blackwell said. They could probably afford monthly mortgage payments, but it’s nearly impossible to scrape together a down payment with home prices and rents being so high.

“You’re trapped in this kind of cycle,” she said --- one that remains top of her mind as election day looms.