Olivia Chow expands her lead as the front-runner in Toronto’s mayoral campaign, says a new poll

Thestar.com
May 15, 2023

As Toronto’s mayoral campaign kicks into a higher gear, former NDP MP Olivia Chow remains the top choice for decided and leading voters, according to a new Forum Research poll for the Toronto Star.

The survey of 1,029 Torontonians conducted Saturday, after nominations closed with a record 102 mayoral candidates, found Chow leading the pack of prominent contenders with 36 per cent of decided and leaning respondents.

That is up 3 percentage points from the previous week. Chow has led polls since last month, including two new surveys by other pollsters. Candidates have until June 26 to convince voters they should replace John Tory who resigned in February.

“Chow has a considerable lead over other candidates,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff told the Star on Sunday. “However, with six weeks until election day, anything may happen.”

Second to Chow in the Forum poll was conservative former police chief Mark Saunders, whose support rose four percentage points to 18 per cent.

Second to Chow in the Forum poll was conservative former police chief Mark Saunders, whose support rose four percentage points to 18 per cent.

City Councillor Josh Matlow tied with former Liberal MPP Mitzie Hunter at 10 per cent. Matlow’s support dropped four percentage points from the previous week when he was tied with Saunders. Hunter gained two percentage points.

Former councillor Ana Bailão got seven per cent support, followed by Coun. Brad Bradford at six per cent. Fourteen per cent chose another candidate. About one-fifth of respondents were undecided.

Results from the interactive voice response telephone survey are considered accurate, plus or minus 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The top election issue for Torontonians, the new Forum poll found, remains housing affordability and the cost of living/inflation.

Chow led early polls last time she ran for mayor in 2014 and finished third behind winner John Tory and now-premier Doug Ford. However, that race was almost 11 months long while this byelection campaign is less than three months, total.

Name recognition has likely helped Chow and Saunders during the early phase of the campaign. The coming weeks will see the most prominent candidates square off on major issues in multiple debates. Advertising and other campaigning will ramp up in June.

Former Liberal MPP Mitzie Hunter tied with Coun. Josh Matlow at 10 per cent support in their bids for mayor in the June byelection.

A Liaison Strategies poll of 1,318 Torontonians, conducted Friday and Saturday, had Chow at 20 per cent support of decided voters, Saunders at 11 per cent and Matlow at 10 per cent. Bradford and Hunter were tied at eight per cent.

Bailão had five per cent support followed by Coun. Anthony Perruzza and former Toronto Sun columnist Anthony Furey, both tied at one per cent.

Four per cent of Liaison respondents chose another candidate. Almost one-third were undecided. The margin of error for the interactive voice recording survey is considered plus or minus 2.69 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

A Mainstreet Research poll of 1,205 Torontonians conducted last Wednesday and Thursday gave Chow the support of 31 per cent of decided voters.

Support for Coun. Josh Matlow dropped four percentage points from the previous week in the new poll done Saturday by Forum Research.

Mainstreet had Bailão in second place with 15 per cent, followed by Saunders at 12 per cent, Matlow at 10 per cent, Hunter at nine per cent, Furey at seven per cent, Bradford at six per cent and policy analyst Chloe Brown at five per cent.

The margin of error for the Mainstreet automated telephone interviews is considered plus or minus 2.8 percentage points at the 95 per cent confidence level.