Olivia Chow leads in the latest Toronto mayoral election polls

Olivia Chow remains the front-runner as other high-profile candidates struggle to make a mark.

Thestar.com
May 9, 2023
Alyshah Hasham

Olivia Chow remains the front-runner in three recent polls as the deadline for new mayoral candidates to sign up approaches.

Voters are also starting to solidify their choice for the next mayor of Toronto -- with at least 76 candidates to pick from as of Monday afternoon.

A Forum Research poll of 2,000 Torontonians has Chow, a former NDP MP and city councillor, well in the lead with 33 per cent of decided and leaning voters, trailed by former police chief Mark Saunders and Coun. Josh Matlow at 14 per cent each. Liberal MPP Mitzie Hunter, former city councillor Ana Bailao and Coun. Brad Bradford also hover around seven per cent. Housing affordability and cost of living continued to top the list of issues voters most care about.

Former mayor John Tory remained the most popular choice when included, with 42 per cent, though Chow slightly gained on him, moving from 18 per cent in the previous poll to 21 per cent.

A Liaison poll of 1,257 Torontonians has Chow on a small but steady uptick since the start of the race, reaching 18 per cent if the election were held today. Saunders -- who has pitted his right-leaning campaign against left-leaning Chow -- is tied in second with Matlow at 11 per cent. Matlow and Chow are expected to vie for the same pool of progressive votes.

Bradford, Hunter and Bailao all hover around seven per cent as the number of undecided voters declined to about a third.

Among decided voters Chow also led with 27 per cent, with Matlow and Saunders tied at 16 per cent.

A Mainstreet poll of 1,056 Torontonians saw Chow with 22 per cent of the vote, followed by Bailao and Matlow at 11 per cent each. Chow’s lead was maintained among decided voters at 31 per cent, with Bailao at 17 per cent, Matlow at 15 per cent and Saunders at 12 per cent.

The Forum poll was conducted on May 6 and 7, and the results of the total sample are considered accurate to plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The Liaison poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada was done on May 5 and 6. The margin of error for survey results is plus or minus 2.76 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 for the total.

The Mainstreet poll was done on May 2 and 3. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95 per cent confidence level.

The nomination period -- the time during which new candidates can register -- ends on Friday at 2 p.m. Election day is June 26.