York Region economy surging, despite housing affordability challenge

Region’s median household income is second in the GTHA at $112,000, yet some residents have left for other provinces due to housing costs, report says

Newmarkettoday.ca
April 14, 2023
Joseph Quigley

York Region is keeping ahead of the curve economically but faces challenges with affordability driving some people out.

The region has an estimated GDP growth of 4.7 per cent in 2022 compared to 3.3 per cent for the rest of the province, staff told regional council April 13. That trend is expected to maintain in the years to come, with a TD provincial economic forecast suggesting the region’s GDP growth will stay ahead, at about 2.1 to 2.3 per cent growth in 2023 and 2024, compared to 0.2 and 0.3 per cent for Ontario.

A report said that has come with the region losing people to intra-provincial migration driven by housing challenges.

But manager of policy, research and forecasting Paul Bottomley said although global economic uncertainty is making an impact, the region is recovering well from the pandemic.

“York Region is very fortunate to have a diverse and resilient economy which has helped the region weather the COVID-19 pandemic and has also helped boost the recovery,” he said. “Over the short, medium and long-term, the region’s economy is well positioned.”

The region has reported steady employment numbers, with about 27,000 jobs gained over the pandemic and unemployment rates reaching pre-pandemic levels, at about four per cent. The region has reported a significant growth in jobs in health care, real estate and manufacturing. The region’s median household income is also second in the GTHA at $112,000.

But housing affordability poses a challenge. A presentation highlighted York Region as losing people over the last six years in terms of intra-provincial migrants, which would exclude immigration. The region had 18,355 people move from it to other parts of the province between 2016-2022, third among upper-tier Ontario municipalities.

Bottomley said housing affordability is a big reason for York having a slower growth rate. Average housing prices were at about $1.4 million in 2022. Still, the region had the sixth-highest growth in the country between 2016 to 2021, gaining more than 50,000, driven by immigration. The region also has 65,900 units in various stages of planning approval.

"We're still moving forward," York Region Chair and CEO Wayne Emmerson said. "People are leaving York Region to maybe go a little bit farther north, maybe because it's less expensive, they can put a little money in their pocket. But there are people are moving in, too. We will continue to do what we can."

Office vacancy
Office availability in York Region and beyond has climbed upward amidst the pandemic, with about nine per cent of offices available for lease or sublease, compared to a low point of five per cent in 2017. Across the GTA, the figure is estimated to be about 13 per cent.

Regional Councillor Jim Jones questioned if there is an opportunity to attract more companies to have offices in the region, with employees not wanting to commute an hour or two to offices in downtown Toronto.

“A lot of employers, once this is all over, would like to have employees back into the office three to five days a week,” he said.

Emmerson said the pandemic has made a permanent impact on more people working from home that organizations have to navigate.

That includes the region as well, he said. He added that he receives questions about staff members working from home.

“Everybody feels as a taxpayer, ‘Why are they at home when they should be in this building (regional headquarters),'” Emmerson said. “There is a time that's going to come and I’m not sure what that answer is. It's totally different now. People are very accustomed to staying home and working from home."