City of Brampton staff say Bill 23 targets would grow city’s population by at least 360,000 in 10 years

Yorkreigon.com
Dec. 13, 2022

The provincial government’s “More Homes Built Faster Act,” otherwise known as Bill 23, has left Brampton council and city staff at a loss about how the city will be able to meet the lofty targets the province has set for the city in the new legislation.

A staff presentation to council by director of city planning and design Andrew McNeil during a Nov. 23 committee of council meeting highlighted some serious concerns about what the provincial government is expecting for Brampton.

According to the report, the targets set by the province in Bill 23 expect Brampton to grow by 113,000 households in 10 years, which McNeil told council would account for a population surge of between 360,000 to 400,000 new residents between 2021 and 2031.

According to census data from Statistics Canada, Brampton is Canada’s fastest-growing city and has added 132,574 residents between 2011 and 2021.

Brampton’s 2021 population was recorded at 656,480, meaning if the city’s calculations are correct, the provincial government expects Canada’s ninth-largest city to grow to over a million residents by 2031.

“To put that in perspective, we are talking about adding more than the entire population of the City of Vaughan (or) the City of Markham in 10 years,” McNeil told council.

“When you think about all of the social (and) human services that come along with a population that size, like community centres, the schools (and) the hospitals, that’s an astonishing amount of growth to try and absorb in such a short period of time,” he added.

A study conducted by city staff with the help of Watson and Associates Economics Ltd. showed that Brampton added 67,365 new ownership properties and 17,560 rental properties between 2001 and 2021, for a total of 84,925 households over the past 20 years.

McNeil added Watson and Associates Economics Ltd. was also contracted to help city staff develop the city’s previous growth plan based on provincial targets set out by the previous Liberal provincial government under former premiers Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne through 2051.

“Approximately 4,000 units a year is historically what Brampton has been able to deliver. That’s based on macroeconomics (and) all the factors that go into the delivery of housing,” McNeil said, adding the 10-year housing target laid out for Brampton in Bill 23 would represent an annual average of more than 11,000 new households per year.

“This would be three times the growth that Brampton has historically delivered over the past few decades,” he said. “Which is shocking for us, and we do not believe it is actually possible.”

The study also found that Brampton has a huge housing crisis, with one in five — or approximately 132,000 — residents living in unsuitable housing. McNeil said Brampton’s housing shortage is twice the national average and called it “unique” in Canada.

However, the study found the province’s target would be far more than the city needs to make up for that shortfall, with 86 per cent of the proposed 113,000 housing units leading to population growth.

Combined with having to fund infrastructure to accommodate that growth, city staff estimates changes to developments charges and other revenue sources in Bill 23 will cost the city the equivalent of an 80 per cent property tax hike.

The Region of Peel, which includes Brampton, Mississauga and Caledon, estimates a $2 billion shortfall and doesn’t believe Bill 23 will solve the region’s housing crisis.

“Supply increases alone will not create affordability for households that need supportive housing or housing that is affordable to low-income and moderate-income levels,” read a release from the region on Dec. 8.

“These radical changes made without consultations will create problems for Peel Region and our local municipalities. The impacts of this legislation will result in a significant loss of revenue and lead to our diminishing fiscal sustainability unless made whole by the province,” added Peel Region chief administrative officer Janice Baker.