Close races for open Toronto council seats, polling shows

Thestar.com
Sept. 21, 2022

Many Toronto city council incumbents appear to be on course for re-election Oct. 24, suggesting open races -- not upsets -- will be the source of new blood at city hall, according to opinion polling conducted for the Star.

Forum Research conducted interactive voice response telephone surveys with more than 200 residents in each of 14 wards selected by the Star -- the seven with no incumbents, and seven of 18 races where councillors are seeking re-election in some of the most contentious races.

The sample sizes of more than 200 people per ward are smaller than citywide polls. That increases the margin of error, meaning these numbers provide a rare picture, however incomplete, of the state of Toronto’s ward races.

Results suggest most of the incumbents had comfortable leads, although Coun. Mark Grimes faces a significant challenge from community organizer Amber Morley in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, just as he did in the 2018 election.

The polling also suggests some close open races, especially one in Willowdale.

The Star chose, based on research, which candidates to include in the polling, always including multiple hopefuls in each race.

Margins of error for the surveys were either six points or seven points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. That means candidates with support levels within that range could be tied.

The research, says Forum president Lorne Bozinoff, “is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather captures opinion at one point in time.”

Here are the results:

Ward 1 Etobicoke North

Former city councillor Vince Crisanti was picked by 47 per cent of decided and “leaning” respondents to fill the seat vacated by Michael Ford, who is now a Progressive Conservative MPP.

Avtar Minhas came second in the survey conducted Sept. 13, with 26 per cent support, while other respondents split their support between other rivals or were undecided.

“Things are looking good for Crisanti right now,” Bozinoff said. “With a near-majority lead, his campaign’s future is looking bright. A Minhas victory would require him to almost double his support within the next five weeks.”

Ward 3 Etobicoke-Lakeshore

Some 53 per cent of respondents were decided or leaning in favour of Grimes, while Morley, who finished second to the veteran councillor in 2018, had 34 per cent. The Sept. 13 survey found remaining respondents’ support split between other candidates.

Facing “less than a 20-per-cent lead, Morley could still catch up,” Bozinoff said. “Depending on how each candidate’s campaign goes in the remaining weeks, a Grimes or a Morley victory seems likely.”

Ward 4 Parkdale--High Park

Coun. Gord Perks, a leader of council’s progressive faction, had a healthy lead over his nearest rival with 52 per cent of decided or leaning respondents. Former political staffer and journalist Siri Agrell trailed with 21 per cent.

Other challengers Andrew Gorham and Chemi Lhamo had 10 per cent and six per cent support respectively, according to the Sept. 13 survey, with the remainder split between other candidates or undecided.

“Perks maintains a comfortable lead as election day comes closer,” Bozinoff said. “Depending on how the next few weeks go, he could possibly see a majority (margin) win.”

Ward 5 York--South Weston

Veteran councillor Frances Nunziata led with support from 52 per cent of decided and leaning respondents, followed by human rights and housing advocate Chiara Padovani with 28 per cent support. The remainder split between Gabriel Takang and undecided in the Sept. 13 survey.

“The polls are showing Nunziata holds a slight majority,” Bozinoff said. Barring something changing before election day, he said, she appears to have a strong chance of re-election.

Ward 7 Humber River--Black Creek

Veteran councillor Anthony Perruzza had a large lead over nearest rival Christopher Mammoliti, a school trustee and the son of former city councillor Giorgio Mammoliti, according to the survey.

Some 73 per cent of decided or leaning voters picked Perruzza, with Mammoliti trailing at 16 per cent. Support from other respondents in the Sept. 13 survey was split between Amanda Coombs and undecided.

“Based on these results, it’s extremely likely that Perruzza will win again,” Bozinoff said. Perruzza’s momentum from the 2018 election, when he beat Giorgio Mammoliti, “appears to be strong.”

Ward 9 Davenport

Alejandra Bravo had a sizable lead, at 62 per cent of decided and leading respondents, in this ward being vacated by Coun. Ana Bailão, the survey suggests.

Grant Gonzales, a Pride Toronto co-chair endorsed by Mayor John Tory after the survey was conducted, trailed with 11 per cent support. Support from other respondents was split between other candidates or undecided in the Sept. 14 survey.

“At this rate, we will very likely see Bravo take the win,” Bozinoff said. “There would have to be a drastic change in these next few weeks to see otherwise.”

Ward 10 Spadina--Fort York

Ausma Malik, a former school trustee and community organizer, had the support of 52 per cent of decided or leaning respondents, followed by former broadcaster Karlene Nation with 13 per cent support, the survey suggests.

Remaining support in the Sept. 14 survey was divided between other candidates, or undecided.

“With a slight majority of support, it is very likely that Ausma Malik will take the win this October,” Bozinoff said.

Ward 11 University-Rosedale

Former Ontario environment commissioner Dianne Saxe leads a close field of candidates eager to succeed departing Coun. Mike Layton, the survey suggests.

Saxe got 38 per cent of support from decided and leaning respondents, followed by Robin Buxton Potts, a former aide to ex-councillor Kristyn Wong-Tam, at 26 per cent support.

Other hopefuls trailing close behind include Axel Arvizu and school trustee Norm Di Pasquale, with remaining support in the Sept. 14 survey split between other candidates or undecided.

“Things could swing either way here in these next few weeks,” Bozinoff said.

Ward 13 Toronto Centre

Chris Moise, a school trustee endorsed by former ward councillor Kristyn Wong-Tam, has the lead with 41 per cent of decided and leaning voters compared to 26 per cent for community activist Nicki Ward, the survey suggests.

The “fair” lead gives Moise a good but far from certain chance of succeeding Wong-Tam, who is now an NDP MPP, Bozinoff said. Moise is Black and gay. If elected, Ward would become Toronto’s first trans councillor.

Remainder of the support in the Sept. 14 survey is split between other candidates and undecided.

Ward 16 Don Valley East

Former city councillor Jon Burnside led the race to replace departing Coun. Denzil Minnan-Wong, with 38 per cent of decided or leaning support from survey respondents in the Sept. 14 poll.

Trailing Burnside, who has been endorsed by Tory, was Stephen Ksiazek at 17 per cent. Remaining support in the Sept. 14 survey was split between other candidates or undecided.

Bozinoff said Burnside, who lost in the 2018 election after one term, stands a “good chance” of making a council comeback.

Ward 18 Willowdale

There is a very close race to replace departing Coun. John Filion, according to the survey, with three candidates garnering support within the margin of error.

The survey had 32 per cent of respondents supporting North York Moms Facebook group founder Lily Cheng, 31 per cent supporting longtime Filion aide Markus O’Brien Fehr, and 25 per cent supporting pharmacist and former federal Conservative candidate Daniel Lee.

All you can say at this point, Bozinoff said, is it’s a “tight race.”

Ward 20 Scarborough Southwest

Coun. Gary Crawford, Toronto’s budget chief, appears to have a strong lead over a field of challengers, the survey conducted Sept. 15 suggests.

The survey found 39 per cent of decided or leaning respondents favoured Crawford, followed by former councillor Lorenzo Berardinetti at 21 per cent, school trustee Parthi Kandavel at nine per cent, and remaining support split between other candidates or undecided.

“Though it’s not a huge lead,” Bozinoff says, Crawford has a good shot at getting re-elected.

Ward 22 Scarborough-Agincourt

Nick Mantas, who won the ward in a January 2021 byelection, appears to be in good shape to beat challengers, including one with the same last name, the survey suggests.

Mantas led decided and leaning respondents with 43 per cent decided and leaning support, followed by Serge Khatchadourian at 23 per cent. Other respondents in the Sept. 15 survey chose rivals including Antonios Mantas, or were undecided.

“Khatchadourian isn’t too far behind,” Nick Mantas, Bozinoff said, but the incumbent appears on course to be re-elected.

Ward 23 Scarborough North

Coun. Cynthia Lai has a large lead on her challengers with support from 52 per cent of deciding and leaning respondents in the Sept. 15 survey.

Lai’s closest rival Virginia Jones got 25 per cent support, trailed by Jamaal Myers at 17 per cent, with other respondents backing another candidate or undecided.

“At this rate, we can expect to see Cynthia Lai take the win,” Bozinoff said.