Why did Stephen Harper endorse Pierre Poilievre for Conservative leader?

Thestar.com
July 27, 2022

Stephen Harper’s public return to Conservative politics -- in the form of his endorsement of leadership contender Pierre Poilievre -- caught a lot of attention.

But what does it mean? And why, after refraining from publicly supporting anyone in the last two Tory leadership contests, did Harper step in this time?

That depends on whom you ask.

Many have noted how the former prime minister maintained a low public profile since resigning as Conservative leader in 2015, when Justin Trudeau’s Liberals toppled the Tories and won a majority government. He stayed out of the 2017 leadership race that saw Saskatchewan MP Andrew Scheer narrowly beat Quebec’s Maxime Bernier (who went on to create the far-right People’s Party). Harper also refrained from publicly endorsing a candidate in 2020, when Erin O’Toole was elected Tory leader.

What’s different this time?

It’s Poilievre, says Mark Strahl, a Conservative MP from British Columbia who is also backing the longtime parliamentarian from the Ottawa area.

In a written statement to the Star, Strahl said Harper’s endorsement is the ultimate prize in the leadership race -- and worth more than all other endorsements combined.

Harper “has maintained a strong connection to our grassroots membership and understands what the party needs to win,” Strahl said.

“The fact that he has weighed in this time after sitting out the last two leadership races tells you how important he believes it is that we elect Pierre Poilievre as our next leader.”

For Yan Plante, a former Conservative strategist and vice-president at the Quebec-based consulting firm TACT, there is likely more at play than a strong preference for Poilievre. In a post on social media, Plante said Harper’s endorsement comes with a risk: if Poilievre loses, what will that say about Harper’s real influence over the Conservative party of today?

Plante also said some will spin the endorsement as a sign that Poilievre needs help, that perhaps a rival like Jean Charest -- the former Quebec Liberal premier -- has a real shot of victory over the perceived front-runner.

A recent Ipsos poll of 1,001 Canadian adults, published July 23, suggests the public in general is more favourable to Charest than to Poilievre. Twenty-two per cent of respondents said they would choose Charest to become the next Conservative leader, compared to 15 per cent for Poilievre.

But the poll also suggests Poilievre has the edge among self-identified Conservative supporters -- 34 per cent would vote for him as the party’s new leader, versus 23 per cent for Charest.

Plante said Harper’s endorsement could be designed to convince Conservatives who are tempted to support Charest that Poilievre is a reasonable choice.

In an email to the Star, Plante also said the “stakes are higher” in this leadership race than in the contests in 2017 and 2020, because of the “internal division we see.” Signs of that include pointed rhetoric -- like accusations by some candidates that others are liars -- and the allegations of unfairness over the disqualification of Patrick Brown from the race.

Another possible factor in Harper’s endorsement, Plante speculated, is his dislike of Charest.

“Mr. Charest was hard on Mr. Harper during federal elections, when one was premier and the other one prime minister,” Plante said. “In my opinion, there may be a little bit of payback time as well.”