Why John Tory’s re-election bid could hurt chances for a progressive city council

Thestar.com
March 28, 2022

John Tory throwing his hat back into the mayoral ring may mean securing more than just his own seat.

With no prospects of a viable challenger being floated behind-the-scenes yet, Tory’s campaign may be able to once again have a major influence over the makeup of council.

In 2018, after Team Tory all but secured a victory ahead of election day, they directly injected themselves in several close ward races across the city where Tory allies were at risk or backing new faces thought to be friendlier to his administration.

Though Tory said this week his focus is on being the mayor and his own campaign, he did not rule out getting involved with ward races to help ensure political allies are elected to council.

“It is partly my responsibility as the head of council, and somebody who aspires to continue to be the head of council, to make sure we have a strong team at city hall to get the job done, to move the city forward, to make sure we have a strong recovery and to protect the gains that we’ve had,” Tory said Friday at an unrelated press conference.

“So we’ll see.”

Michal Hay, a former city hall staffer, started Progress Toronto before the last election to help push candidates with progressive agendas.

“The 25-ward system creates big fundraising and incumbency hurdles for new candidates, but there’s huge potential for change in many wards with people getting behind inspiring women and racialized leaders,” said Hay, a longtime left-leaning organizer who worked Jagmeet Singh’s leadership campaign.

“Another generation of progressive leadership is trying to get in and John Tory will likely be working to stop them.”

In 2018, Tory waded deep into several local races to support allies, including Mark Grimes and Brad Bradford, over their progressive rivals.

Top Tory campaign strategist Nick Kouvalis gave a speech at the Empire Club of Canada in November 2018, archived on its YouTube channel, detailing the campaign’s strategy to mobilize volunteers and support in key ward races with a goal to “elect the best council possible that would support the mandate.”

In Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Kouvalis said that as their polls showed support for incumbent Grimes flagging heavily by mid-October, the team went into “full panic mode.”

“I moved to Etobicoke for the last nine days of the campaign,” Kouvalis said.

Tory publicly endorsed Grimes and he went on to win by a large margin.

In Beaches-East York, Tory backed newcomer Brad Bradford in an open race where the political left supported Matthew Kellway as the strong favourite. Bradford went on to win by fewer than 300 votes.

In both cases, besides public endorsements, Tory’s campaign robocalled for both candidates, urging supporters to vote for Grimes and Bradford, offered both volunteer support on the ground and high-paid strategic and communications advice.

This time around, there will be at least one open race, with Progress Toronto-backed candidate Ausma Malik announcing she plans to run in Spadina--Fort York. Longtime incumbents and Tory allies on council like Grimes could also once again face strong challengers from the left.

Beyond 2022, the future of municipal leadership is more uncertain.

If re-elected, Tory said his third term in office would likely be his last.

“I fully expect it will,” said Tory, 67, noting that he’s had discussions with his family about his re-election campaign and feels there is still “unfinished business.”

When Tory was first elected in 2014 -- beating former NDP MP Olivia Chow and then-city councillor Doug Ford in a tight election that saw no candidate receive the majority of the vote -- he suggested that two terms as mayor would be his limit.

Now, after announcing his candidacy, Tory indicated that “something like” 12 years in office would be an appropriate term limit.

“We have to recognize … it takes a period of time to get acclimatized and comfortable exercising your responsibilities,” he told reporters at the Friday morning press conference. “But there also comes a point in time at the end of that period when it’s time to make way for new blood.”

There are others possibly waiting in the wings.

“If John Tory was not running, I believe that many people would step in,” said Coun. Michael Thompson, who serves on the mayor’s executive committee and was appointed deputy mayor for the east area of the city.

“It is certainly something I would have looked at.”

Joe Cressy, who earlier announced he is leaving political office at the end of this term after serving two terms as councillor for Spadina--Fort York, hasn’t ruled out a future return. He was a favourite in political circles to run this year after further raising his profile as chair of the board of health during a pandemic, but has been firm in his decision to move on.

Or someone entirely new could emerge, someone not yet on the political radar, who has the time to ready a team and strategy over the next four years.