Too soon to return to normal? Top doc cautions York Region as new COVID-19 subvariant spreads

Yorkregion.com
March 25, 2022

York Region is showing worrisome signs that cases of the BA.2 Omicron variant of COVID-19 are on the rise.

In an update to regional council March 24, Medical Officer of Health Dr. Barry Pakes said wastewater surveillance shows COVID-19 is clearly increasing across the region and the province,

As of this week, he said “well over 50 per cent” of these cases are the BA. 2 variant, which, while not more severe, is more contagious than the earlier version of Omicron.

Pakes said he would have preferred waiting a few more weeks to remove masks and urged the public to continue to wear theirs.

The decrease in hospitalizations has slowed, and transmission of cases is expected to increase further with the lifting of provincial restrictions last week.

“It’s not clear to us whether this is going to be a gradual increase with very little impact on acute care or whether it's going to be a precipitous increase, and we're certainly hoping not.”

Polling shows 73 per cent of Canadians are in favour of continued mask mandates despite the province removing mandates.

York Region residents continue to comply with masking, although "that will certainly wane with time," Pakes said.

Pakes said he is among many public health units encouraging masking in most indoor environments, at least for the next couple of weeks -- especially in confined spaces, crowds or close contact.

Pakes also advises “having a mask in your pocket” to put on whenever someone is uncomfortable with risks.

“I’m certainly wearing a mask in public, not because I’m necessarily fearful, but because we’re trying to frame it as ‘We care.’ I think that is an important message at this part of the pandemic.”

Restaurants and businesses no longer need stickers on their doors advising masks are required, he said, but he recommends new signage for businesses where people are close together, encouraging mask use and “focusing on the kindness principle.”

On the positive side, York Region residents have shown “excellent” uptake of vaccinations, especially boosters, with about 60 per cent having received third doses, he said.

Pakes said he is watching other jurisdictions, Europe in particular, where the BA. 2 variant is rising more exponentially, but noted there have not yet been any variants that are more severe or escape vaccine protection.

China is alarmed about a resurgence, but that’s likely because they have a lower threshold for intervention and a “zero-COVID” approach, he said.

Public health officials may call for a return to masking should the wastewater curve move from gradual to more steep increases, if there are more anecdotal cases; increase in hospitalization or absenteeism at school and work; and if a new “escape variant,” one that does not respond to vaccines, or that is much more severe, surfaces, Pakes said.

“COVID is not over,” he said. “I think we all recognize that, and those who say that are certainly mistaken. I see this as a transitional phase where we are going to see increased transmission, but we don't necessarily know what that is going to look like.”

To be safe, he said, residents should be prepared to wear a mask in almost all indoor environments now, and if all goes well, by May, look forward to an individual, risk-based assessment for masking in the summer.

By fall, the regular respiratory season, mass use of masking will likely return, he said.