York Region moves toward managing, not fighting, COVID-19

From boosters for teens to copying the U.S.: York's top doctor provides an update -- and hope

Yorkregion.com
Jan. 31, 2022
Kim Zarzour

On the day the world celebrated Thomas Crapper Day, who popularized the modern-day toilet, York Region has heard good news about what is being flushed down local toilets.

Dr. Barry Pakes, the region’s medical officer of health, told regional council Jan. 27 that York’s wastewater is showing signs that the Omicron inferno may be dying down.

With the province's changed regime for COVID-19 testing, health units are looking more to viral signals in wastewater to measure the prevalence and growth of COVID-19 and variants of concern.

The latest data indicates the Omicron-fuelled surge has decreased or stabilized over the past two weeks, Pakes said.

A chart showing COVID-19 detected in wastewater

He cautioned that the trajectory is still tenuous and the reopening of schools last week and business openings Monday may cause a rise again, but he said hospital CEOs are optimistic and fewer health care staff are off sick with COVID.

As part of his regular updates to council, Pakes responded to questions from members of council about how York Region is coping in this latest phase of the pandemic.

Here are more key take-aways:

New Ontario data shows booster doses are 95 per cent effective at preventing hospital admission.

York has seen 70 deaths due to COVID so far this year -- about the same rate as during the first and third waves and far exceeding the fourth wave -- but 75 per cent of those deaths are in those who were not boosted, he said.

Most deaths are among the elderly, who had their second doses long ago and whose immunity has waned, he said.

They are also often frail “and Omicron is the COVID infection that pushes them over the edge,” he said.

Teens will have to wait awhile longer to get their boosters.

Many parents are asking when their 12- to 17-year-olds can get third doses.

“I have two children in that age group and I’m very enthusiastic to get them boosted right now,” Pakes said. “But NACI (National Advisory Council on Immunizations) has just made a recommendation that only those who are immune compromised can, because the evidence simply isn’t there yet for that (younger) group.”

That’s because youth were vaccinated later in the immunization rollout and there’s no data yet to show waning immunity, he said.

As well, manufacturers haven’t provided clinical trial data on that age group, he said.

NACI is gathering evidence from surveillance data around the world.

“It is on the horizon, but I don’t know how close it is,” he said.

York Region children are stars when it comes to vaccination.

Almost 60 per cent of 5- to 11-year-olds in York Region have received first vaccines.

Among that age group, almost 15 per cent have received two doses.

It’s a “remarkable achievement,” Pakes said, and it places York among the top regions in the province.

“It’s not a race, certainly, but I think it does bode well for our students and a safe return to sustained in-person learning.”

Boosters are key to getting Ontario back to “normalcy.”

Some parts of the world appear to be more relaxed about COVID-19, but that may not be desirable.

In the U.S., for example, where stadiums are filled and grocery shoppers unmasked, there’s three to four times the number of deaths and four times the hospitalizations, Pakes said.

“The Canadian public overwhelmingly, regardless of your political party, doesn’t want to look like that,” he said.

Americans spend well over double per person what Canadians spend on health care, he said.

“Our health system would never be able to come anywhere close to accommodate what has happened in the United States.”

Instead, he said, we are opting for a “careful balance,” moving slowly toward a point of managing, rather than fighting, COVID.

Moving the isolation period to five days, even though it can potentially transmit beyond that period, is a step in that direction, he said, as is opening schools and no longer tracking workplace outbreaks.

If you want to get back to normalcy, maybe by spring, he added, “most certainly, get that booster dose.”