The Ford-less campaign has been mutually beneficial (so far)

Ipolitics.ca
Sept. 9, 2021

When Doug Ford pokes out of hiding on Thursday for a brief appearance at a virtual business conference, don’t expect him to take any snipes at his political frenemy, Justin Trudeau.

It hasn’t been that kind of campaign for Ontario’s premier, who, unlike in the 2019 election, has mostly been ignored by the federal parties as they duke it out for votes.

Credit for Ford’s lack-of-involvement belongs to both him and the Liberal leader. It was Trudeau who repeatedly dragged Ford into the political boxing ring during the last campaign, even as Ford kept his distance from the Andrew Scheer-led Conservative campaign.

Things were different then; that was pre-pandemic, and Erin O’Toole is now the Conservative leader, and Ford -- who was often remarked was Trudeau’s “punching bag” in 2019 -- is a tougher target to sell to voters. As David Hains noted for QP Briefing at the onset of the 2021 campaign, Ford isn’t anywhere near as unpopular as he was in 2019.

That’s made it easier for Trudeau to resist the same Ford-focussed strategy of the last federal campaign, which Andrew Perez, who worked in former Liberal premier Kathleen Wynne’s office and has volunteered for the federal and provincial Liberal parties, called “politically shrewd,” since its customary for premiers and prime ministers to stay out of one another’s elections.

The camps also essentially reached a truce, with the Toronto Star’s Robert Benzie reporting at the start of this campaign that an unnamed official close to Ford told him the premier directed his cabinet to “stay out of” the federal election.

While Trudeau had less to gain going after Ford, that decision also keeps Ford out of harm’s way, as one former Progressive Conservative (PC) staffer explained to iPolitics. iPolitics agreed not to name the staffer so they could shed light on PC strategy.

“I think since (2019), the premier kind of noticed how that affected his brand in Ontario, and specifically around the GTA, so they kind of came up with the strategy to back away from this one,” they said.

“(Ford) doesn’t want to get tossed into that ring, knowing that he has an election coming himself next spring.”

That plan’s been followed so far, albeit with one blip. After it was reported that the Ford government was finalizing a COVID-vaccine-passport system, Trudeau’s Liberals went after Ford’s government for dragging its feet. Ford snapped back when he announced the system a few days later, criticizing the Liberals for not establishing a countrywide system, and saying that Trudeau had called an “unnecessary election.”

Since then, Ford’s gone quiet again -- even escalating his absence by proroguing the Ontario legislature until after the federal election’s over.

In Ford Country -- which, at the federal level, is reliably Liberal -- there’s been little movement during this election. In fact, there’s hardly a race to be flipped.

The federal counterpart to Ford’s provincial riding of Etobicoke North (which shares its name) seems to belong comfortably to Liberal candidate Kirsty Duncan, its MP since 2008.

Out of the surrounding six ridings, which all have Liberal incumbents, Mainstreet Research projects that only one is threatened: Vaughan--Woodbridge, where the twice-elected Francesco Sorbara is up against the challenge of high-income Ontarians shifting their preference to O’Toole’s Conservatives.

In that riding, Ford’s been a “non-entity,” according to Peter DeVita, the NDP candidate for Vaughan--Woodbridge.

“His name just (doesn’t) arise at all,” DeVita said, alluding to his own campaign experience. “Issues are overshadowing personalities.”

Voters that DeVita’s talked to care more about things like the pandemic response, the climate crisis, housing, affordability, and helping small businesses, he said.

“At this point, there doesn’t appear to be a Ford effect,” Robert Martin, a junior analyst for Mainstreet, wrote in an email. “But there is an argument that if it wasn’t for Ford (e.g. Ontarians’ fear of right-leaning parties) that O’Toole could have an even bigger lead in Ontario, rather than just, functionally, a tie.”

With less than two weeks of campaigning left, the former PC staffer said they expect what’s been the status quo to continue, and Trudeau and Ford to effectively ignore one another. However, they said, that may change if Trudeau evokes Ford during the debates, or if the Liberal leader attacks the premier out of desperation.

And just like when Ford was called out over vaccine passports, the premier may again be forced to loosen his restraint, they said.

“Doug Ford -- he’s not going to go out of his way to throw punches, but he can certainly hold his own.”