'People are letting their guard down,' York Region's top doctor warns

Wastewater spikes, in Vaughan especially, show 'worse is to come' with COVID-19

Yorkregion.com
Sept. 2, 2021

Have we relaxed a little bit too much this summer?

Have these heady, humid holiday months led us into a dangerous fourth wave of COVID-19?

Early signs don’t bode well.

York Region’s medical officer of health warns that wastewater surveillance shows an uptick in “viral signals” in York Region -- an early indication that trouble is on the way.

“We have a challenge in front of us. People are letting their guard down," Dr. Karim Kurji said in an interview this week.

“We have seen increased activity with our case contact management, we've seen cases in gyms and fitness centers, sports teams, large gatherings in restaurants, ethnic facilities, industrialized areas that have been rented out for gatherings, dance classes ... and infections due to lack of masks being worn, lack of distancing and less active screening in many places, particularly restaurants.”

Local hospital ICUs are filling quickly, Kurji said.

Vaughan Cortellucci, for example, jumped from five to 14 COVID-19 patients requiring intensive care -- primarily young people in their 30s.

Virtually all of the patients hospitalized in York Region are unvaccinated, with a smaller number who are partially vaccinated, he said.

Part of the jump may be due to a relaxation that occurred in June and July when the incidents of COVID-19 dropped.

But new information has shown vaccinated individuals are much more likely to transmit the virus than previously thought, he said.

People assumed they were safe to drop masking when they were seated and eating at gatherings, “but then they’d get up and mingle with their friends and not physically distance.”

Kurji said wastewater surveillance shows an increase in virus samples, particularly in Vaughan, “and that indicates to us that worse is to come.”

“The biggest challenge has been the COVID-19 virus being more nimble than we have been. Things change day by day. Now we’re back to where we were at the peak of the first wave and our predictions indicate that this fourth wave will be almost as bad as the third.”

Modelling data shows numbers could be up to 360 cases a day by the end of October.

The region is fighting back with new pop-up vaccine clinics, in addition to community hubs, targeting the under-35 age group that is under-vaccinated and set up in geographic areas where immunization is low, such as Woodbridge (the least vaccinated), Maple and Thornhill.

Kurji worries most about the unvaccinated because the latest figures show they are eight times more likely to catch the virus, 29 times more likely to be hospitalized and 48 times more likely to be in the ICU.

If you end up in the ICU, you are likely to be there for many weeks, he said. Forty per cent end up dying.

If you have concerns about vaccine safety, Kurji suggests contacting public health, a pharmacist or health care provider.

The region is also stepping up its case contact and outbreak management, but that has become challenging, Kurji said, because people are seeking testing later than they used to -- possibly because they are vaccinated and don’t believe their symptoms are COVID-19. (About 13 per cent of York Region COVID-19 cases are among vaccinated individuals.)

People are also being less co-operative and forthcoming when it comes to sharing contacts, he added.

“By the time the results come through, much of the harm has already been done.”

The region is also working with school boards on measures to make back-to-school safe, including the possibility of high-contact sports permitted outdoors only, non-essential visitors denied entry to schools and the masking of junior kindergarten students.