A day after Doug Ford hinted at an early reopening, Ontario’s top doctor says it’s too soon to say

Thestar.com
June 4, 2021
Rob Ferguson

Ontario’s chief medical officer says decisions on an early reopening from third wave COVID-19 restrictions will have to wait after an unexpected increase in cases since Monday.

“This recent uptick is a bit concerning,” Dr. David Williams said Thursday, a day after Premier Doug Ford said he was “cautiously optimistic” about easing public health measures sooner than the target date of June 14 after a general decline in key pandemic indicators.

While trends have been moving in the right direction -- including the seven-day moving average of cases -- the rise could be fallout from the May 24 long weekend and comes as the highly contagious B.1.617 or Delta variant first identified in India is growing despite increasing vaccination levels, Williams said.

“It is rising and we’re seeing it more prominent in our large urban centres,” as well as other parts of the province, he told a news conference, adding more time is needed to assess the situation.

“We’ll have some better answers for the premier and the minister early next week,” Williams said in reference to Health Minister Christine Elliott. “The data at the moment is less promising.”

Ontario reported 870 new infections Thursday, above the level of 550 to 600 that the chief medical officer has set as a target for reopening.

Elliott had moved earlier in the day to downplay expectations for an early reopening that would allow restaurant patios and a return of customers to non-essential stores -- with a 15 per cent capacity limit -- amid speculation that it could happen as soon as Monday.

“The numbers have gone up today, but, generally they are trending downward--so there is a possibility that we may be able to move into stage one several days earlier than June 14,” the health minister told reporters.

“We’re going to have to continue to follow the data, especially with the ... Delta variant right now,” Elliott added. “We know that people are anxious to move into step one, but we can only do that when it’s safer for everyone’s health.”

Delta is more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 or Alpha variant first found in the United Kingdom and which took Ontario by storm over the winter, fuelling a third wave that sent cases to record levels, forced a lengthy stay-at-home order and pushed the hospital system to the brink.

Peel medical officer Dr. Lawrence Loh said the Delta strain is expected to dominate in his region next month and across the province in the following weeks, according to projections from the science table advising Ford.

He and Mississauga Mayor Bonnie Crombie called for extra supplies of COVID-19 vaccines for Peel to speed up second doses, particularly for vulnerable workers.

“We need a strategy that prioritizes everybody in hot spots,” Crombie said, noting one dose is less effective against Delta than other strains. “We cannot allow this new variant to take hold.”

Elliott said Peel has been allocated the second-highest tally of vaccines behind Toronto and is “well served.”

While about 440 Delta cases have been confirmed in Ontario, it cannot be detected as easily as other variants through standard testing and samples must go through “slow and laborious” genomic sequencing, leaving health officials without real-time data on its spread, Williams said.

“The numbers are probably higher than that,” he added. “We know it’s in, around, and moving.”

Opposition parties questioned why Ford was thinking of reopening sooner than the mid-June recommendation from his science table of advisers when a three-step reopening plan tied to vaccination levels and key indicators was unveiled last month.

“It’s pretty troubling when the premier on the one hand says that he’s worried about opening schools because of the spread of variants of concern...but doesn’t see the same concern when it comes to malls and big box stores,” said New Democrat Leader Andrea Horwath.

“I hope this government has learned from its mistakes,” she said.

The last time Ford cleared restaurant patios to reopen, in March, they had to be closed within a couple of weeks because cases spiked and the restaurant industry got stuck with millions of dollars in food and beverage inventory, said Green Leader Mike Schreiner.

“When they reopen we want them to stay open. We have to do it right this time.”