Ontario schools could reopen in June with a ‘manageable’ increase in new COVID-19 cases, experts say

Thestar.com
May 21, 2021
Kristen Rushowy

Ontario schools could reopen in June and although doing so would increase COVID-19 cases, such a move may be “manageable in some regions,” says the province’s science advisory table.

Premier Doug Ford wants consensus from doctors and teachers’ unions on students returning for in-person instruction for the last month of school, but also said “we can’t afford an 11 per cent increase” in COVID-19 cases.

“We just have to get around the table and make sure we have an agreement,” he said Thursday. “I know a lot of parents are anxious but there’s also the fact ... that it could possibly increase cases by 11 per cent. That’s concerning, because it compounds so quickly.”

However, the premier added that while he “would love to get the kids back” into classrooms, and noted that children aged 12 and up are now receiving vaccines, “I’m not going to rush into this.”

Ford’s comments came as the Canadian Pediatric Society, along with Sick Kids hospital and CHEO in Eastern Ontario and a coalition of other prominent experts said children have “suffered immeasurably over the course of the pandemic” and again urged the province to immediately reopen schools.

“The benefits of a few weeks in classroom cannot be overstated,” they wrote in an open letter.

New Democrat MPP Marit Stiles, her party’s education critic, said “students and their families are worn down after another five weeks, and in some cases even longer, of emergency remote learning. They are missing their friends, their teachers” and want in-person learning.

Talk of schools reopening came as the province released its plan to ease restrictions on Ontarians, and as the COVID-19 science advisory table issued new modelling numbers that included a look at schools. It predicted that if schools open June 2, new COVID-19 cases could rise by 6 to 11 per cent.

Chief medical officer of health Dr. David Williams said he would like schools to reopen in June if possible and that consultations continue with the ministries of health and education and local medical officers of health.

“Our medical officer of health understand the concerns, especially around the mental health wellness, the socialization, the developmental issues of all the children,” Williams said, adding that school sites could aid in efforts to vaccinate children aged 12 and up now that they are eligible.

He estimated about 30 per cent of teachers have been vaccinated to date.

Reopening schools “does increase the cases (but) I think the question is really whether or not we’d be able to keep up with all of the other public health measures, including case and contact tracing that would be required with schools open,” said Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto and co-chair of the science table.

“But (schools) really should be the first thing to open when we can open things.”

While children’s experts have been calling for targeted reopenings of schools in areas with lower COVID-19 rates, the advisory table’s Dr. Peter Juni said in places like Toronto and Peel Region, “perhaps we just need a week longer to bring these numbers down a bit more. But this doesn’t prevent the rest of the province to open schools already, while keeping in mind we need to tread very carefully.”

It’s “a calculated risk,” he added, but it can be done relatively safely with masking and cohorting of children.

He said a six to 11 per cent increase is manageable. However, if outdoor amenities open up followed by schools, then “you can’t add anything on top of that,” until the end of June.

Peel medical officer of health Dr. Lawrence Loh said he was optimistic that COVID-19 numbers “are trending in a favourable direction that, if maintained, might support a return to in-person learning.”

Patrick Casey, director of corporate communications for York Region’s public health, said if the province gives the go-ahead, schools there could reopen on May 31.

He said public health would like to see cases drop to between 50 and 100 per 100,000 residents or lower, per week, and “our modelling indicates this is possible by this time frame.” Currently, York is just over 104 cases.