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'Conditions favourable' for York Region reopening when stay-at-home order ends, top doc says

With numbers declining overall, challenges remain in the continuing outbreaks at workplaces and institutions, including long-term care home with unvaccinated workers, according to Dr. Karim Kurji

Newmarkettoday.ca
May 21, 2021
Debora Kelly

“Conditions are favourable” for York Region to safely reopen schools and businesses as soon as it gets the thumbs up from the province when the stay-at-home order ends June 2, the medical officer of health says.

Independent modelling data by Scarsin indicates “there is not likely to be a fourth wave in York Region if we were to be open as of June the 2nd,” Dr. Karim Kurji told regional council this morning. “And that is very encouraging.”

"I would say that we would need to be very vigilant at least until late August," he said. "Vigilance doesn't have to come completely at the expense of society not functioning, as it were."

Businesses would need to be reopened gradually and "with great care", he added.

However, he added that the CEOs of the region’s three hospitals, including Southlake Regional Health Centre in Newmarket, have said restrictions similar to the stay-at-home order should be continued for an additional month until ICU rates have declined to permit non-emergency surgical cases.

“That is an opinion I think that we expected to be hearing … and it really would be up to the province to balance out all these competing priorities. From a whole community approach -- which we have advocated in York Region -- my personal view is that we shall be ready to open businesses and society quite safely, taking the necessary precautions, at the end of the stay-at-home order on June 2,” Kurji.

In fact, “conditions are already .. quite favourable to an opening”, he said.

The region’s current incidence rate is at about 105 per 100,000 population and the rolling seven-day average for daily new cases is about 180.

By June 2, it is “very likely” York Region’s incidence rate will be 50 cases per 100,000 population.

Scarsin modelling predicts 75 cases per 100,000 population by May 31.

Vaccinations rates for eligible adults with at least one dose will likely have reached over 70 per cent by June 2, he said.

He said that the public health unit has communicated to the region’s schools boards that it would be safe to reopen by May 31, or even days earlier -- however, the decision to return to in-person learning remains with the ministries of education and health.

In anticipation of Premier Doug Ford’s announcement at 3 p.m. today, Kurji said he wouldn’t speculate about the conditions under which York Region might be permitted to reopen, however, he said he would support restrictions similar to those in place prior to lockdown in the red zone.

York Region continues to be challenged by the number of outbreaks in both workplaces and institutions, such as long-term care facilities, retirement and group homes, he said.

About 117 workplaces in hot spots have been visited by mobile vaccination clinics operated by the Ministry of Health and Red Cross teams, Kurji said, and if vaccine supplies increased, large companies like Magna International Inc. are prepared to provide the resources needed to vaccinate employees and their families.

The majority of the institutional outbreaks are being fuelled by unvaccinated staff, with the proportion being as high as 25 to 30 per cent in many long-term care homes.

Fourteen outbreaks are currently active in York Region -- “and that is not an acceptable number,” Kurji said.

The public health unit is continuing its educational efforts and is revisiting the facilities offering vaccinations, Kurji said.

In Newmarket, no institutional outbreaks are active after a 14-day outbreak closed May 18 at Eagle Terrace Long-term Care, with six health-care workers infected with COVID-19.

In one home, four residents who were fully vaccinated with Pfizer have been infected in a COVID-19 outbreak that began with unvaccinated workers, he added.

Markham Regional Councillor Jack Heath said while he was encouraged to hear vaccination rates had increased for health-care workers in the region, it was “hypocritical” for long-term care workers to not get vaccinated when about 90 per cent of residents agreed to get vaccinated.

Vaughan Regional Councillor Gino Rosati also raised concerns about the high rate of unvaccinated workers at institutional facilities.

“I think, shall I say, it’s too risky for people that work, particularly in long-term care, and refuse to be vaccinated. I think that has to change somehow … I think it’s important.”

Kurji agreed, saying, “When you actually get people who are in an outbreak situation, even when they are vaccinated, it is more likely that they will actually get infected, so it is important to us to continue making progress reducing the number of unvaccinated staff.”