Time to open cautiously? 4 things to know now about COVID-19 in York Region

'I think we are all very tired of the yo-yoing': Dr. Karim Kurji

Yorkregion.com
Feb. 12, 2021
Kim Zarzour

1. York Region council is asking the province to lift the lockdown Feb. 22

Dr. David Williams, chief medical officer of health, is expected to announce Feb. 19 that York Region can move into the red zone if case numbers continue to decline and the region’s medical officer of health and regional councillors are on board with that.

With vaccines arriving, early signs that long-term-care outbreaks are improving, and a policy of enhanced inspections, Dr. Karim Kurji says the situation is improving -- but the message will continue to be “stay home, stay distant, follow health protocols and only go out for essential visits.”

It sounds like a mixed message, but Kurji says returning to the Red Zone Plus and allowing some things to be available will give businesses breathing space and assist with social isolation and mental health issues.

2. The variant is here, in large numbers, but aggressive case and contact management seems to be damping the spread

Public Health Ontario started screening all positive cases of COVID-19 on Feb. 3 and has detected a “very large number,” Kurji said.

As of Feb. 11, York Region identified 124 samples with new variants of which 45 are U.K. lineage. The remainder have to go through genomic sequencing to determine if they are U.K., South African or Brazilian lineage.

The variants had been doubling every five days, which is much higher than was occurring in the U.S. and U.K. (where it was doubling every 11 days); this seems to have slowed down and Public Health Ontario figures show the virus is no longer replicating as quickly.

That can change rapidly, Kurji warned. In other countries with the variant, it takes four to six weeks for the spread to become “explosive.”

“We have to navigate the next few months very carefully.”

3. With variants in our midst, pay close attention to your mask

There’s been a lot of discussion with respect to double-masking. The idea is that two masks provide a tighter fit and increased filtering. But this may introduce problems with breathability and in some cases, such as health-care environments, it’s been found that double masks may increase transmission, possibly because they are touching their face more or not donning masks in a sterile way.

N95s are not recommended to the general public because they are not as available and required for medical procedures that involve aerosolization of the virus. Until new science-based research is available, Public Health Agency of Canada continues to recommend a three-layer mask that fits properly.

4. Vaccinations probably won’t be available to the general public until late April

Supplies should ramp up by mid- to late-February and the flow of vaccines is expected to substantially increase by the end of March when larger immunization sites would open to process as many people as possible.

With partnerships between public health, pharmacies, physicians, hospitals and municipalities, the vaccines will roll out as rapidly as they arrive.

When vaccines are available to the general public, the news will be shared in a big way, Kurji said. Pharmacists, physicians and family health teams may approach individuals who meet eligible age categories; in other cases, they will be able to come to mass immunization clinics. Details of the communication strategy are being worked out now.