York Region avoids lockdown after private modelling data shows it would have minimal impact

680News.com
Dec. 7, 2020
Shauna Hunt

York Region has avoided going into lockdown once again, despite having one of the highest positivity rates in the province.

The Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr. Karim Kurji went to bat for the region, laying out a case to the province that a lockdown wouldn’t make much of a difference.

The region hired Markham-based private data company SCARSIN, who found using Facebook data there would be minimal impact on the numbers if a lockdown was implemented.

Dr. Kurji said they are reaching almost 90 per cent of cases in 24 hours and while hospitals are stretched, they are not yet in crisis mode, unlike some Toronto hospitals.

According to York Region’s website, there are currently 1,218 active cases of COVID-19 and 59 people are currently hospitalized, 11 of which are in the ICU.

As of Thursday, the test positivity rate for York was 5.6 per cent, compared to six per cent in Toronto.

The region is seeing a higher rate of infection per 100,000 people than Toronto with 111 cases per 100,000.

“It’s our hope that our figures will trend downwards,” said Kurji, who added they expect to see cases level off in the next 10 days. “It’s our hope we wont have any surprises.”

The Facebook data used by SCARSIN showed a 20 per cent drop in mobility from the pre-COVID baseline and seven percent since the region moved from the orange to red zone restrictions. The data did not consider the crowds of shoppers coming in from other areas that are in lockdown.

They also said if a lockdown were implemented, there was a likelihood of COVID fatigue setting in.

York Region says they have upped it’s enforcement as well, saying full compliance with public health rules is a key part of the equation. More than 1,000 businesses were inspected last week with more than 40 issued fines.

Vaughan, one of York Region’s COVID-19 hotspots, borders Brampton and Toronto and is a popular shopping destination with Vaughan Mills. The mall was fined four times on the Black Friday weekend.

Vaughan Mayor Maurizio Bevilacqua said they know the virus is spreading, but are expecting a decline.

“A decision has to be made that you go into a lockdown then reopen or if you have the capacity to manage and navigate though the next 10 days then you should do that,” said Bevilacqua.

Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr. David Williams, also commented on the decision on whether to put a region in lockdown mode.

“It’s a combination of different factors in there all weighing to make a decision on lockdown. It’s not an easy decision -- it’s a major one so we don’t just do it on one or two metrics alone,” said Dr. Williams.