Teetering on lockdown: York Region asks Ontario to let it stay in COVID-19 Red Zone

Recent crackdown on pandemic rule-breakers impacting behaviour, region's top doctor says

Yorkregion.com
Dec. 4
Kim Zarzour

York Region is “clinging by its nails” to the Red Zone, but the local medical officer of health believes it’s still too early to move into lockdown.

Dr. Karim Kurji told York Region council today that he is recommending to the province York continue in the Red (Control) zone with enhanced enforcement and monitoring for another two weeks.

The province and local public health lead are undergoing “challenging” discussions, he said, with York on the verge of the so-called Grey Zone, which is where neighbouring Peel and Toronto have been since Nov. 23.

York’s current infection rate of 111 cases per 100,000 population per week is higher than what Toronto was reporting on the day it entered lockdown, according to The Toronto Star’s ongoing tally.

Data released Dec. 2 by the Toronto-based non-profit ICES shows parts of York Region bordering Brampton have a test positivity rate of 20.4 per cent -- the second highest in the province.

But Kurji said it’s important to look at the full picture.

Most of the addresses in the ICES report with greater than 20 per cent positivity were in Peel Region, he said.

As well, Kurji said, everyone uses slightly different time frames to calculate incidence rates. As of Dec. 2, York’s incidence rates were about 96.4 per 100,000 and Dec. 3 they were 102, while Toronto, when it went into lockdown, was at 104, he said.

Incidence rates are not the only factor determining lockdown, he said.

When Toronto and Peel went into the Grey Zone, they were having major challenges with respect to hospital capacity and their public health units were overwhelmed, Kurji said.

“We in York Region do not have those same issues. Yes, our hospitals are challenged, but we’re not hearing the same crisis calls.”

York entered the Red Zone Nov. 16.

Kurji said most experts would give two incubation periods (14 days each) after entering a zone to accurately assess results.

For this reason, and because the data continues to be encouraging, and because the enforcement blitz appears to be changing behaviour in the region, he asked the ministry of health to keep the region in the Red while monitoring closely.

Kurji summed up the current state of affairs in York Region.

The COVID-19 Incidence rate continues to trend below that of Toronto and Peel Region, positivity rate remains unchanged, and those aged 70 and older have less risk of acquiring the virus in the community compared to other age groups.

This week’s numbers, compared to last week's, show a similar number of outbreaks and slight increases in institutional settings, but the number of hospitalizations of York Region residents has declined.

“Our hospitals in York Region are now taking in patients from the GTA," he said. "I have regular conversations with our three hospital presidents and my sense is that they are coping, but they are having greater challenges.”

Public health is able to reach 88 per cent of cases within 24 hours with contact tracing -- a key component of the public health response, he said.

A modelling company hired by the region determined that additional gains from entering lockdown would be minimal, he said.

As well, data shows a decline of 20 per cent, and trending downward, of residents’ mobility since the Red Zone was introduced. This indicates fewer people are out and associating with one another, he said.

For these reasons, and balancing health with economy and mental health, he is recommending the region not move into the Grey Zone.

“At this point we are hanging by our nails in the Red Zone and we are likely to be pushed into lockdown zone if our arguments are countered by other experts,” he said.

“We defer to the province’s wisdom because they have access to a lot more data, particularly with respect to hospital capacity in the GTA."

Kurji acknowledged some areas of York Region struggle with high rates of COVID-19.

According to ICES data that covers the last full week of November, several areas in York Region had high test positivity rates, including Kleinburg, Markham near Steeles and Brimley, Concord, Woodbridge, Maple and northeast Markham.

Kurji said the region is taking action on hot spots. School testing is underway for asymptomatic schoolchildren, there is more testing in Vaughan through Mackenzie Health and there are discussions with the ministry regarding community intervention strategies in areas with higher prevalence.

Bruce Macgregor, the region’s chief administrative officer, said the local and provincial COVID-19 enforcement teams have been busy chasing down rule-breakers in an effort to keep the region in the Red Zone, with almost 1,500 inspections for education and enforcement over the Black Friday weekend.

Enforcement activity will continue throughout the holiday shopping period, he said, because it has shown to be changing behaviour.

Markham Mayor Frank Scarpitti, said that a couple of businesses in York Region were in deliberate defiance of the rules but over the weekend, more and more businesses had lineups of customers waiting to go inside.

“I think they just got the message that we were out there,” he said. “Everybody pulled up their socks … and this is not the time to let our foot off the gas.”

Richmond Hill Regional Councillor Carmine Perrelli put forward a motion to remove limits on the number of patrons inside restaurants (currently set at 10 diners in Red Zone regions) and remove time constraints on diners’ alcohol consumption (sale of liquor must be stopped at 9 p.m. in Red Zones).

Instead, Perrelli said, restaurants should be required to stick with other health measures such as masks and two-meter distancing.

Other councillors said they agreed these are hard times for restaurants, but the timing for such a request is wrong.

Asking the province to loosen restrictions -- at a time when the region is teetering on the edge of lockdown -- could be viewed as “out of touch” and hurt the region’s credibility, Newmarket Mayor John Taylor said.

The motion was defeated 10-5.