'Leaky lockdown' not expected to change COVID-19 numbers in York Region

Travel, manufacturing may be behind rising numbers: Dr. Karim Kurji

Yorkregion.com
Dec. 24

Ontario’s “leaky lockdown” probably won’t make much of an improvement to COVID-19 cases in York Region, the local medical officer of health says.

Regional council received six emails Tuesday from residents angry at the lockdown and calling for the region to fight back.

Most reiterated talking points from conspiracy theorists; others expressed concern about local businesses and their families.

But council members and the medical officer said, at a special meeting Dec. 22, they have argued against the closing for weeks.

In fact, Dr. Karim Kurji told regional council members, the new provincial lockdown targets areas that were not a problem in York Region -- and it leaves leaks that could prolong the pandemic.

Public health data shows schools, retail stores, restaurants, gyms and places of worship -- all of which fall under the provincewide lockdown -- are not connected to large outbreaks in York Region, Kurji said.

He believes that’s thanks to local layers of protection, protocols and enforcement.

However, outbreaks do continue in workplaces -- companies manufacturing products like windows, furniture and fabrics, Kurji said.

These businesses are deemed essential by the province and remain open.

There have been almost 2,000 confirmed cases linked to York Region workplaces and currently, 35 active outbreaks.

Travel remains another concern, he said.

During the first wave, the lockdown was effective, but, this time around, Kurji said, it’s more a “leaky lockdown” and he is not optimistic.

Provincial experts had called for a hard lockdown based on experience in France and Australia.

“They believe that a hard lockdown of four to six weeks can reduce the numbers in Ontario to less than 1,000 a day and possibly much lower if we had increased testing and additional supports,” he said.

But without travel restrictions, Kurji is skeptical.

“We have the challenge of being next door to the worst national outbreaks on our southern borders. We also have the challenge of a lot of international travellers coming into Ontario.”

Travellers are required to quarantine, but there are many reports of that not happening, he said.

“We hear anecdotally many, many instances of people not actually abiding quarantine, going out shopping etc.

“I believe that we have hit these steep increases as a result of infection from the U.S. and internationally.”

Local data shows just one travel-related case every day, or every other day, but Kurji said he doubts the accuracy, given the amount of travel that’s occurring.

“These are the good individuals who have probably observed quarantine, have gone for testing when they have symptoms. It’s the ones that don’t do that that I’m more concerned about.”

Thousands of travellers reportedly cross the border with the U.S. every day and, according to Premier Doug Ford, 64,000 people come to Pearson each week.

“I am sure there must be leaks in the travelling public, quarantining and detection,” Kurji said.

Other countries impose strict rules with respect to testing on entry, some making travellers pay $2,000 in advance, and they are put into facilities where quarantining can be observed, he said.

It’s too soon to tell if the York Region lockdown, launched Dec. 14, has been effective. That won’t be clear until Dec. 28 at the earliest, he said.

“I think the public in general has been very compliant with public health measures, so I don’t think squeezing them even more is going to result in substantial improvement.”

However, he added, hospitals are stressed and hospitalizations and ICU admissions are likely to increase.

“There are some who would argue that since COVID-19 is already around and we don’t know who has it, these lockdown measures are useful.

“We have always deferred to provincial experts. We don’t have access to the data that they have, nor the resources that they have.”

“It’s the premier’s call,” York Region chairperson Wayne Emmerson said. “He doesn’t want to close the businesses. He knows the effect it is having on people mentally, and economically. He’s not hiding under a rock … But he must have his reasons for doing this.”