York Region lockdown likely to last 2 months, top doc predicts

Dr. Karim Kurji thinks that daily case numbers need to be brought down to 80 per day before York Region can make a convincing case to the province that the lockdown should end

Newmarkettoday.ca
Dec. 18

It's not likely York Region will move out of the grey lockdown zone until its daily new COVID-19 cases drop to at least 80 -- which could take two months, according to York Region's medical officer of health.

"I think we would have room to begin advocating to get out of lockdown when we start hitting numbers around 80 cases per day," Dr. Karim Kurji said told regional council today.

"It's certainly a tall order, and I have had our epidemiologists try to project how long it would take us to reach 60 per day. Assuming that everything went really well, we get there in two months," said Kurji. "With the public's help, enhanced enforcement and a good effort from public health, I am hopeful that we can bring that timeframe forward.

On Dec. 15, 210 new cases cases were confirmed in York Region.

Newmarket Mayor John Taylor said there are too many people assuming the lockdown will end after 28 days. It is more likely that the province will renew it at least once.

"As unwelcome as the news might be that this could easily be two months, or even longer, local businesses need to know that for their own planning," said Taylor. 

With so many businesses likely to be hurt by months of lockdown, Kurji said he raised the concern about the economic impact on local businesses with Ontario's chief officer of health. He was told that there has been very little uptake in the $600 million in financial aid the province promised earlier this month to help support small businesses.

"According to the minister of Finance, only $3 million has actually been used so far. They didn't understand why people are not applying for the support available to businesses in lockdown and red control zones," said Kurji.

Georgina Regional Councillor Robert Grossi was taken aback, saying the region should be working to make sure business owners know such resources are available.

"To hear they have only accessed a minimal amount is shocking," he said.

During York Region's first week under lockdown, Kurji said it looked as though new cases were levelling off until the jump of 210 cases on Wednesday. That said, Kurji noted it will take about 10 to 12 days before the impact of the lockdown will start to show up in the daily infection numbers.

One bit of good news, the medical officer of health said, is that all of the physical distancing, inoculations, and other precautions appear to have stalled the beginning of flu season, which would have normally started by this time in previous years.

"We haven't had any cases of flu cases yet. Last year, we had 66 cases already," he said. "That should assist us in keeping health-care system burdens down."