‘Yes, the situation is that serious.’ Toronto mayor, top doc urge strict limits on Thanksgiving gatherings

Thestar.com
October 8, 2020

Only celebrate Thanksgiving with the people you live with, Toronto’s mayor and top doctor warned on Wednesday, after presenting harrowing forecasts for the near future if the spread of COVID-19 in the city isn’t slowed down.

“No amount of turkey or stuffing or pumpkin pie can replace the presence of your extended family members,” said Mayor John Tory, adding that Dr. Eileen de Villa’s advice is clear on the issue of what to do this Thanksgiving weekend.

“Please do not hold big Thanksgiving gatherings. Please limit your Thanksgiving gatherings to people you live with under the same roof.”

De Villa, the city’s medical officer of health, said the so-called reproductive rate for COVID-19 in Toronto is 1.2, which means that each new case is generating more than one new infection. She said the province estimates the reproductive rate in Toronto is even higher -- at 1.4 new cases for every person who tests positive.

The reproductive rate has to fall below one for an outbreak to die out. At one new case for every person infected, the amount of illness in the community is stable -- it’s not getting better, but it’s not getting worse, she explained.

Assuming a reproductive rate of 1.2, de Villa said disease activity in the next few weeks of October will exceed the peaks seen in April, when the city was still in lockdown.

If the virus is unchecked, heading into November things could get much worse -- infections could continue to rise week-over-week, not peaking until 2021.

If the reproductive rate can be driven down to 0.9 by the end of October, the total number of people infected would be six times lower.

“You aren’t just passive observers,” said de Villa, speaking at the COVID-19 update at city hall. “Your actions -- the choices you make -- play a significant part in arresting and even reversing the spread of COVID-19.”

De Villa said people who live alone should join celebrations remotely instead of joining in person. People with serious mental health needs that require them to connect in person with others should meet with someone outdoors, while keeping a distance of at least six feet at all times. They should also wear a mask and not eat or drink while together.

“Yes, the situation is that serious,” de Villa said, adding that no one should make the mistake this year of being in a crowded room full of people they don’t live with.

“Believe me, I know -- I really do know -- that this is a huge ask,” she said, adding that residents must continue to practise social distancing, wear masks and wash their hands.

“I would much rather you do Thanksgiving differently this year than look back at this year in future and wish you had.”

Epidemiologists said that while asking people not to socialize on Thanksgiving is a good start, it’s not enough.

“Can we turn this around without a lockdown? I don’t know,” said Dr. David Fisman, an epidemiologist at University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health.

“Every day that passes without action makes it less likely.”

Dr. Andrew Morris, an infectious disease specialist at Sinai Health and University Health Network, said much more needs to be done -- on many fronts.

“Our biggest problem is we don’t have understanding of how many cases we have,” said Morris, adding that the province isn’t conducting enough testing and in Toronto contact tracing had to be limited to the most pressing cases.

“How can we possibly get this under control if we’re not testing as much as we need, if we aren’t contact tracing and we’re not imposing measures for people to change their behaviour,” he said.

Time is of the essence, Morris said. In this second wave of the disease, which was first detected in Canada in January, a majority of the new infections have been among younger people who are less likely to suffer complications requiring hospitalization. The longer the virus is allowed to circulate unchecked, the more likely it is to infect older people, who are more likely to die from the illness.

He said he supports de Villa’s recommendation to the province that dining in restaurants and bars in Toronto be suspended.

On Friday, de Villa asked the province to temporarily reinstate a ban on eating inside bars and restaurants in Toronto to slow the spread of the disease, pointing out that more than 40 per cent of cases in one specific recent week could be traced back to bars and restaurants.

Her request received support from the Toronto District School Board on Tuesday, when the board voted at a special meeting to call on the province to implement the recommendation, in an effort to keep schools from having to close due to an increase in infection rates.

Premier Doug Ford has shown little interest in complying with de Villa’s request, saying he needs clear evidence that bars and restaurants are fuelling an increase in transmission.

Tory said keeping the transmission rate low at Thanksgiving will “give us a shot at Christmas with all of the trimmings, including healthy family members.”

De Villa said there were 187 new infections in Toronto since Tuesday.