‘I'm expecting something bad to happen in November’: York Region's top doctor warns Georgina of second COVID-19 wave

Dr. Karim Kurji talks to Georgina residents about coronavirus pandemic: From vaccines and close contacts to the second wave and the flu

Yorkregion.com
October 23, 2020
Amanda Persico

Recently, Mayor Margaret Quirk hosted a second virtual town hall meeting with Dr. Karim Kurji, York Region's medical officer of health.

“Since mid-March, we’ve been dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic,” Quirk said during the virtual town hall. “It’s October, and we’re facing some of the same issues and many new ones.”

Along with many of the same issues, the message is still the same: Now is not the time to let your guard down.

From a COVID-19 vaccine and close contacts to the second wave and travel, here's what we learned from Dr. Kurji:

Q: ARE WE IN THE SECOND WAVE?
A: “While this is a second wave, I don’t think this is the second wave. I’m still expecting something bad to happen in November. I’m hoping I’m wrong.”

Based on studies from the United States, the second wave would come sometime in the fall -- sometime in November.

That’s when cold weather brings people inside more, and it also coincides with the start of flu season.

But COVID-19 cases started to climb in September, before the official start of fall.

Q: WHEN WILL A VACCINE BE MADE AVAILABLE?
A: “Hopefully, one will be available by March at the least. But the vaccine may not be 100 per cent effective. The (pandemic) may take longer after the vaccine is developed."

But the issue will be availability for the general population. The vaccine may be reserved first for health-care workers, long-term care facilities and for vulnerable sectors of the population, such as seniors.

In planning for a vaccine, the region is working on a number of COVID-19 mass immunization plans, using this year’s flu shot as a model. Plans include drive-thru and mobile flu shot clinics and mass immunization sites.

 

Q: WHERE ARE THE MAJORITY OF COVID-19 CASES COMING FROM?
A: Early on, the thought was COVID-19 was introduced into the community through travel-related cases.

But now, the bulk of cases are arising from close contact transmission, as seen in large social gatherings.

Q: WHY ARE SOCIAL CIRCLES IMPORTANT?
A: “We’re urging people to get back to their social circles. Slowly and steadily, that (system) has broken down. It is important to do our very best to minimize contacts for a while, so we can collectively bring the numbers down.”

Limiting social interactions helps block transmission and stop the spread.

Based on the coronavirus’ doubling time, one COVID-19 positive case can result in about 100 other cases in a month’s time.

Once the number of cases comes down, the risk across the community decreases; risk in schools decrease and risks in workplaces decrease.

Q: IS AIR TRAVEL STILL A CONCERN?
A:“ The good (travel cases) are the ones we know about; they follow quarantine rules and have gone for COVID-19 testing.”

It’s the ones public health doesn’t know about that’s concerning.

Q: WHAT ARE THE KEY SYMPTOMS THAT DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN COVID-19 AND THE FLU?
A: "It would be very difficult to differentiate between the two, clinically."

The only way to differentiate between the two is through testing.