Toronto officials push province for new restrictions as rate of new COVID-19 infections soars to highest ever

Thestar.com
Oct. 2, 2020
David Rider

Toronto’s skyrocketing COVID-19 infection rate -- the highest ever -- has city officials beseeching their provincial counterparts for new measures to slow the spread and escape avoidable deaths and a return to lockdown.

“The rapid rise in cases in our city is deeply alarming,” Coun. Joe Cressy, chair of the Toronto Board of Health, told the Star on Thursday. “Increasingly we’re seeing cases and outbreaks across the city -- in the community, in workplaces, and in congregate settings.

“Based on the data, and looking at the experience of other jurisdictions, it’s clear that further public health measures are needed to save lives and keep our schools open,” he added.

“Our team is in active conversations with our provincial counterparts on next steps. There is a fierce urgency now.”

According to the Star’s daily count, Toronto’s average rate of new reported COVID-19 infections has never been higher.

Toronto saw an average of 265 new COVID-19 cases reported daily over the last week, well above the highest peak the city’s seven-day average hit in the spring -- 230 daily cases as of May 25, the Star’s Ed Tubb reports.

The rate of new cases has accelerated since the city entered Stage 3 of reopening at the end of July. On Aug. 1, Toronto had an average of about 15 cases reported daily over the previous week. That rate has doubled four times in two months.

That exponential growth is increasing. It took 28 days, until the end of August, for the seven-day average to double. It has taken just nine days for the same average to nearly double from 133 cases a day on Sept. 23 to 265.

In the spring, Ontario had much narrower criteria for testing and labs were processing far fewer tests daily than now. Many less severe COVID-19 cases were likely missed in the spring, meaning an undercount compared to current tallies.

But Toronto’s infection growth rate, if sustained, would see the city soon reporting hundreds more cases daily. The city’s seven-day average would surpass the previous peak infection rate for the entire province -- about 600 daily cases -- by mid-October.

Mayor John Tory said he continues to be “alarmed” by the rate of new infections. He has asked Dr. Eileen de Villa, the city’s public health chief, what new actions, including those outside Toronto’s jurisdiction, could halt the spread.

“This has been the subject of multiple meetings this week involving Dr. de Villa, myself and members of our senior command team,” Tory said in an email.

“All governments and all residents have to work together right now to follow public health advice and confront this resurgence.”

Tory recently lauded Premier Doug Ford’s government for heeding calls for new restrictions including moving last call for alcohol at bars and restaurants to midnight and reducing the number of people legally allowed at private gatherings.

But Toronto is urging the province to impose further measures it can’t legally do on its own, including:

• Mandating physical distancing in indoor workplaces and mask usage when that’s not possible.
• Fixing the provincial lab-result reporting system. Toronto’s online COVID-19 “dashboard” shows the city getting results within 24 hours, on average, only 18 per cent of time. Within 48 hours, it’s only 37 per cent. Officials say the slow turnaround makes tracing infected people’s contacts extremely difficult.
• Lowering the limit of 50 people allowed in banquet halls and similar venues that host weddings and other gatherings that have triggered outbreaks. Also, considering further restrictions on bars, restaurants and gyms.

Dr. Vinita Dubey, Toronto’s associate medical officer of health, noted September saw 3,000 confirmed new infections. “It is evident that there is an immediate, rising risk in Toronto of continued and significant COVID-19 resurgence,” she said.

Recent outbreaks have been linked to private parties, a “diverse range” of workplaces, weddings, bars and restaurants, and religious services. TPH notes, however, infections can happen anywhere people don’t physical distance, wear masks and wash their hands, behaviours it says will slow the spread.

The dangers of continued exponential growth are grave, raising chances the virus will once again invade seniors homes, homeless shelters and other “congregate” settings, she said.

Dr. Andrew Boozary, an assistant professor at University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, said Thursday that “the calculus of keeping bars, clubs and casinos open is seemingly more and more hazardous each day.”

“The alarming part,” he added, “is the disconnect between where we are on the (infection) curve and the policy measures that seemingly need to come into effect,” as cooler weather forces people inside and puts vulnerable positions at risk.

“We need to mobilize all efforts and supports to clamp down on this rising wave.”

Dionne Aleman, a U of T assistant engineering professor expert on pandemic growth, is concerned public health officials are not able to identify the source of a sizable number of new infections.

“That makes it really difficult to have an evidence-based plan for what needs to be closed down,” she said. “Is it because of travellers not following quarantine or people holding parties?

“If we don’t know the sources its almost impossible to make effective surgical strikes at problem areas and control them.”