Second waves, Halloween and Santa Claus: 5 things to know about COVID-19 now

It's going to get worse before it gets better, York Region's medical officer of health warns

Yorkregion.com
Sept. 25, 2020

COVID-19 case numbers are on the increase in York Region, indicating a second wave is under way. - Torstar file photo

You’ve been hearing a lot about the pandemic’s dreaded second wave, and health authorities say it has now begun -- but there’s more bad news.

York Region’s top doctor says a third, worse wave is coming.

That was one of the key points discussed at this morning’s York Region council meeting with the medical officer of health, Dr. Karim Kurji.

Here’s what you need to know now:

1. York Region is seeing an average of 32 new COVID-19 cases a day, which is not as steep an increase as in April, indicating the safety measures are helping.

But the second wave was not expected until November when the cold weather and flu season set in. That’s not how it worked out.

We hit the second wave much earlier than anticipated, Kurji said, and he expects this one will bring two to three times -- maybe more -- higher numbers than the first.

He expects a third, more severe wave in a month or two, for several reasons:

• People may get tired and relax their COVID-19 safety precautions
• Governments are reluctant to impose another lockdown
• Cold weather will force people indoors
• Influenza and cold outbreaks will muddy the waters and add to health-care burdens
• Schools and workplaces are reopening and increasing interaction

Not raised by Kurji, but reported in The Washington Post this week, a large, but not peer-reviewed, study shows the virus may be mutating to a more contagious strain.

“We are in very different territory now than we were in the first wave,” Kurji told York’s mayors and regional councillors. “I think we’re going to be stuck with the high numbers of cases probably until at least February next year.

2. Flu vaccines will be made available to high-risk populations (long-term-care homes and hospitals) on Sept. 30 and to other physicians onOct. 5.

York’s vaccine supply will increase by about 25 per cent over last year, Kurji said, and it is hoped that more than the usual 30 per cent of the public get vaccinated.

“By vaccinating more individuals against the flu, it should help us keep more people out of hospitals" and free up space for any COVID-related cases, he said.

3. Public health is investigating several potential areas of transmission concern, including spot inspections of gyms where there has been employee-to-employee transmission, and a nightclub in Vaughan that saw two cases.

Tourist areas are also an area of concern, he said.

While no York Region COVID-19 cases have been connected to Niagara Falls, Kurji said distancing is not as diligent among tourists there -- many of whom are from Vaughan, Markham and Richmond Hill.

For the same reason, he said, worth watching is Vaughan Mills -- which sees more than 200,000 visitors a week and poses additional challenges being indoors.

Public health is working with the City of Vaughan and mall operators on crowd control ideas and hiring more security guards.

4. Halloween and Santa parades will look different this year.

Kurji said the province is working on a safe approach to the Oct. 31 holiday, and on appropriate advice, with local public health to ensure the case count does not rise.

But board chair Wayne Emmerson remained skeptical.

“I’m not sure you’re going to stop Halloween. I think some families on a block in their own neighbourhood are going to go get the candy, go home and wipe it off … We’ll do what we can by messaging but it’s got to come down to a little more common sense by people.”

Santa parades are also in limbo, with some areas considering innovative approaches like stationary “reverse” parades with the public driving by floats; others, like Toronto, are cancelling all together.

5. It’s likely a COVID-19 vaccine won’t be available on a mass scale until March next year at the earliest.

Kurji said availability will be in short supply and distribution will be prioritized to health-care workers and residents of long-term-care homes.

“Given that the winds that are blowing against us are headwinds … it would appear our challenges are going to continue with large numbers of cases. We are struggling to bring them down and requiring the co-operation of everyone.”

For more information, visit york.ca.