Ford’s $11B Ontario Line likely won’t be completed by 2027, source says

Thestar.com
June 2, 2020
Ben Spurr

The provincial government is forging ahead with the Ontario Line amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, but the procurement of Premier Doug Ford’s signature transit project will be more complicated than previously thought, and its completion likely delayed.

The Star has learned that on Tuesday the provincial government plans to announce the first two public-private partnership requests for qualifications (RFQs) for the Ontario Line. The 15.5-kilometre, $11-billion rail project would connect Exhibition Place to the Ontario Science Centre via downtown and forms the centrepiece of Ford’s $28.5-billion transit plans.

In a draft press release obtained by the Star, Transportation Minister Caroline Mulroney says the RFQs signal the province is “one step closer to realizing our transit vision and helping to generate economic activity and create tens of thousands of jobs as the province recovers from COVID-19.”

“Under the leadership of Premier Ford, our government is taking historic steps to expand subway service and reduce traffic congestion across the GTA,” Mulroney is quoted as saying.

The Ministry of Transportation release makes no mention of the project’s previously announced target completion date of 2027, which from the outset experts had described as unrealistic.

A senior government source with knowledge of the project said although the province is doing everything it can to advance the Ontario Line, including performing necessary geotechnical and utility survey work this spring, market conditions coupled with the COVID-19 crisis may push the project back.

“The target date for the Ontario Line has always been reflective of what market participation was bidding back to the province,” the source said.

“I’d be lying to you if I said (the 2027 completion date) wasn’t challenged.”

In an unexpected development, the release shows the province plans to break up procurement for the Ontario Line into at least four separate stages.

According to a fact sheet accompanying the release, one RFQ announced Tuesday will be a 30-year contract to design, supply, operate and maintain the vehicles, track, communications, and train control systems for the entire line, which provincial transit agency Metrolinx has said would be driverless.

As part of a framework deal Toronto city council struck with the province last October over the proposed upload of the subway system, the TTC is to be responsible for day-to-day operations of new lines built by the province.

It’s not clear how a request for qualifications that would put at least some Ontario Line operations out to tender fits that agreement, but the senior government source said operations of the line will “absolutely remain with the TTC.”

A source with the Ministry of Transportation said “the extent of operational duties carried out by TTC” on the Ontario Line “could include forward-facing customer personnel” like station managers and transit security, as well as network transit control.

The second RFQ set to be announced Tuesday will be for designing, building, and financing the southern portion of the Ontario Line, from Exhibition Place to the Don Yard west of the Don River, including seven stations and a six-kilometre tunnel.

The third RFQ will be for the northern portion of the line, from Gerrard to the Ontario Science Centre, including seven stations, a three-kilometre tunnel, and associated bridges and elevated guideways. Although the province doesn’t plan to release the RFQ for this stage until early 2022, the contract would end at the same time as the earlier two phases, “allowing the Ontario Line to open as one,” according to the fact sheet.

Segments of the Ontario Line that run through GO corridors will be procured separately. Preliminary designs for the project show a portion running through the Lakeshore East GO corridor, from a point west of the Don River to Gerrard. The province expects the work in GO corridors to begin before the other three packages.

The complex, multi-phase approach is a departure from the one previously discussed by Metrolinx. The agency’s initial business case for the project contemplated a P3 bid to design, build, finance, and maintain the line, but made no mention of multiple contracts.

The senior government source said the province decided to break up the contract to make it attractive enough to the private sector to ensure a competitive bid that would provide good value to taxpayers.

In the past year, potential bidders from some sectors had expressed concerns about having to team up with vehicle providers to vie for projects, as well as the significant the financial risk government was asking them to take on for large transit builds.

The COVID-19 pandemic has also dealt a financial blow to major construction industry players based in Europe, making it more difficult for the province to assemble a competitive bid.

“The market place was very different” when the province announced the Ontario Line in April 2019, the source said.

Since that time Metrolinx has been actively working on the project. As of last week the agency was operating 15 geotechnical rigs in the field to analyze ground conditions along the route, and the agency is nearing completion of noise and vibration studies for the project.

Once complete, the Ontario Line is expected to carry 389,000 people every day, and take pressure off the TTC’s Line 1 (Yonge-University-Spadina) subway.