What’s ahead for Ontario Liberals in 2019? Rebuilding and finding a new leader

Thestar.com
January 7, 2019
Rob Ferguson

Turning the page on a disastrous 2018, Ontario Liberals have big decisions to make as the party grapples with millions in debt and ponders when to pick a new leader.

There are two schools of thought, each with pros and cons -- a spring and summer leadership race with a September vote before the Oct. 21 federal election campaign begins in earnest, or waiting until 2020, insiders say.

The Liberal party has big decisions to make on who should be the next leader to replace former premier Kathleen Wynne, seen walking to her last caucus meeting in June.

The party executive is leaning toward the latter option to concentrate on paying down the considerable campaign debt, says one senior Liberal who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal strategy.

“It’s a tough slog. We haven’t come close to any of our monthly fundraising targets since June,” the insider admits.

Former finance minister Greg Sorbara, a key architect of Liberal election victories under former premier Dalton McGuinty, is pushing for a leadership contest to start in the spring.

“It’s a foolish idea to go later. Until you choose a new leader, nothing much is going to happen,” he argues.

“You need to give a new leader lots of time,” Sorbara adds, noting it took seven years of seasoning as opposition leader before McGuinty was elected premier.

A decision won’t be made until 2019 is well underway with the common goal of rebuilding after the devastating June loss to Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives, reducing the Liberals to just seven seats and prompting former premier Kathleen Wynne to step aside as leader, although she remains an MPP.

Because the Liberals fell below the seat threshold for official party status and get few opportunities to grill Ford and his ministers in the legislature, Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats get the lion’s share of media attention.

“The performance we’re seeing from the Doug Ford government gives us hope there is a chance for us to rebuild more quickly than we thought,” says former cabinet minister Steven Del Duca, referring to controversies like the appointment of longtime Ford family friend Ron Taverner to commissioner of the Ontario Provincial Police.

“Week after week they demonstrate they don’t have the competence to govern,” adds Del Duca, who is considering a leadership run.

Party sources say MPPs Mitzie Hunter, Michael Coteau and Marie-France Lalonde are also weighing their options.

Interim party leader John Fraser, the MPP for Ottawa South, says next steps for the party will “solidify” at an annual general meeting being organized for early spring.

His focus is on fundraising and reaching out to the 1.1 million Ontarians who voted for Liberal candidates on June 7.

“The work ahead for us is to bring people back together. It’s not like it’s going to be easy.”

At an election post-mortem in September, officials said the campaign debt was $9 million but the party insider says that figure included a credit approved but not drawn down, leaving the actual debt at $7 million. Less than two weeks into the campaign, for example, the party executive pulled $700,000 from the budget because polling showed election ads were not “moving the needle” with voters.

The party has a new focus on getting small donations of $5, $10 or $20 through mass emails, something rivals do but an approach the Liberals never honed under McGuinty and Wynne.

Given increasing concerns over finances, Sorbara, through the party, recently issued an appeal for maximum legal donations of $1,200.

“My pitch was not ‘help us defeat Doug Ford’ but that the province is best served when there are three strong political parties. The Liberal party got the s--t kicked out of it in the last election and it needs to rebuild.”

Underscoring the need for cash, McGuinty himself has been making calls to potential donors, a high-ranking party source told the Star.

The fundraising appeals, while not meeting targets, are on an upward trend, with 90 per cent of donations coming online and $60,000 raised during the first two weeks of December, says a senior party insider.

Several Liberals said the next leader will need to spend less time at Queen’s Park and more time travelling throughout the province meeting activists in their ridings, building up campaign teams and raising money.

“It’s not glamorous work,” says the party insider.

While Wynne took the party to the left, the push appears to be for a more centrist approach as the next election approaches.

“People were just thoroughly unimpressed with the last two years of the Wynne government’s public policies,” says Sorbara.

“The former premier should resign her seat so there can be a clear and definitive end to the Wynne era. I love her but she leaves a cloud over the whole process.”

Wynne, who represents Don Valley West, has privately signalled she plans to continue representing her constituents for the time being and recently proposed a private member’s bill requiring seatbelts in school buses.