Aurora voter turnout down despite online voting, four-way mayor race

Yorkregion.com
October 30, 2018
Teresa Latchfrod

Despite online voting and a four-way mayoral race, fewer voters cast a ballot compared to previous elections.

Municipal election voter turnout has been slowly declining in Aurora over the past three elections. In 2010, voter turnout was 38.5 per cent, which declined to 35.7 per cent in 2014 even though there were two referendum questions regarding number of councillors and a ward system on the ballot. Even with four heavy hitters looking to fill the mayor’s seat, only 32.1 per cent voted this time around.

“We can’t nail down voter turnout to one thing, there are a lot of factors at play,” Aurora’s town clerk Mike de Rond said. “I don’t want to speculate why turnout is down.”

This was the first election online voting was offered, but de Rond points out there is no evidence that it increases voter turnout. He suggested residents might just be satisfied with the direction council has been going.

A full report on the voting process and turnout will be presented to council in the future.

The fact that average voter turnout in York Region was down 5 per cent from 38 per cent to 33 per cent this year didn’t come as a surprise to York University associate professor of politics Dennis Pilon. Turnout at the municipal level is traditionally low because voters find it more difficult to navigate than federal and provincial politics. Without political party labels, Pilon said, there are fewer shortcuts available at the municipal level.

While some municipalities were hoping online voting might increase turnout, it didn’t appear to have significant impact on turnout in Newmarket or Markham. “I would have predicted that for you, if you called me before the election,” Pilon said.  The research in the field points to little impact on voter turnout from online voting or increased days of advanced polls, Pilon said. “It reshuffles the deck for people already committed to vote,” he said.

What does tend to increase turnout are things like scandal or a big issue -- something that can raise municipal politics above the noise. “Rob Ford was great for voter turnout,” Pilon said. In scandal plagued Whitchurch-Stouffville, voter turnout did jump a couple of percentage points this year.   

Another item affecting turnout is that fewer candidates are running as it is a difficult task to knock off an incumbent. “It’s a major investment to raise your profile,” Pilon said. “How much are you going to invest?” 

So how do you actually increase voter turnout? While every election has people who will vote no matter what, Pilon said the largest predictor for if an occasional voter will make it to the polls is personal contact. The “ground game” of reaching voters face-to-face actually does work at getting people out to the polls, Pilon said.

That’s why things like the size of the riding are important when considering voter turnout. Citing Doug Ford's decision to reduce the size of Toronto council, Pilon said the new system with fewer wards breeds less civic engagement as it is more difficult to reach the residents.