Toronto’s 2018 voter turnout falls sharply from last election

Thestar.com
October 25, 2018
Samantha Beattie

A perfect storm led to a sharp decline in Toronto’s voter turnout, down to 41 per cent.

Just one election ago, in 2014, Toronto set a record at 60 per cent of eligible voters hitting the polls, marking the highest voter turnout since amalgamation.

An uncompetitive mayoral election is almost always a formula for low voter turnout, an expert said. In Toronto’s election, John Tory received more than 60 per cent of the vote, while Jennifer Keesmaat received less than 25 per cent.

“It’s almost like falling off a cliff,” said Myer Siemiatycki, a politics professor at Ryerson University, adding that it shouldn’t come as a surprise. “You couldn’t have designed an election to have a lower voter turnout.”

Voter turnout for the Toronto election is an unofficial estimate not confirmed by the city, but based on city data. The city will release official results later this week, a spokesperson said.

One of the reasons why turnout was low is likely because candidates didn’t know for sure where their ward boundaries would be until mid-September, when a court determined the election should proceed with 25 wards, as legislated by Premier Doug Ford’s government, rather than the planned 47. That meant candidates had half the time to cover twice the geography and didn’t reach enough residents, Siemiatycki said.

Then there’s the mayoralty campaign that saw the “very belated” entry of Jennifer Keesmaat in late July, he said. Unlike the 2014 election that saw a close race between high profile candidates including John Tory, Olivia Chow and Ford, Keesmaat didn’t have the same name recognition, or “organizational robustness” to help her make up lost time.

And an uncompetitive mayoral election is almost always a formula for low voter turnout, said Michael McGregor, also a politics professor at Ryerson. Tory’s win, predicted in early polls, proved to be a “blowout” as he attracted about 63.5 per cent of votes.

An easy win appears to have impacted Mississauga’s voter turnout too, with incumbent Mayor Bonnie Crombie coasting to victory. Voter turnout was just 27 per cent, according to the city.

During the Hazel McCallion era, when the long-time Mississauga mayor seemed destined to win again and again, as few as 20 per cent of voters would cast a ballot.

Brampton’s voter turnout in this election is higher than Mississauga’s, unofficially at 34.5 per cent, reported the city. That’s with a feisty mayoral race that featured former PC leader Patrick Brown defeating incumbent Linda Jeffrey.

For at least the past decade, Brampton’s voter turnout percentage has remained in the mid to low 30s (in 2014 it peaked at 36 per cent). Even when the race has “a very high-profile set of candidates, the turnout is still below Toronto’s worst effort,” McGregor said.

A number of factors contribute to the 905’s lower voter engagement in municipal politics.

There’s a “black hole” or lack of information in the Peel Region, with media outlets covering almost exclusively Toronto politics, said McGregor. And there’s the fact Mississauga and Brampton are hubs of diversity.

“Research suggests immigrants and visible minorities vote at relatively low levels in municipal elections in particular,” McGregor said. He’s currently trying to figure out why in his research.

Compared to the “thicker network” of civic engagement in old city centres like Toronto, suburban life is “more individualized and private with not as many bonds that bind residents to each other and their community,” Siemiatycki said.

“As you fan out from the downtown core to the older suburbs and then further out to Brampton, Mississauga, Vaughan and Markham, voter turnout decreases.”

Voter turnout tended to be higher in the downtown wards, with the exception of Ward 10, Spadina--Fort York where Councillor Joe Cressy, not facing any incumbents, easily beat out the 13 other candidates. Only 37 per cent of that ward’s voters cast a ballot.

The two wards that tied for highest voter turnout at 50 per cent were both close to downtown. Ward 12, Toronto--St. Paul’s saw Councillor Josh Matlow beat out Joe Mihevc, who was endorsed by Mayor John Tory. In Ward 14, Toronto-Danforth, Councillor Paula Fletcher bested former council ally Mary Fragedakis.

Voter turnout tended to be lower in the city’s most northern wards from Etobicoke North across to Scarborough--Rouge Park.

The open race in Ward 23, Scarborough North had the lowest voter turnout at 33 per cent. Cynthia Lai won with 27 per cent of votes cast.

Low voter turnout shouldn’t be accepted as a given and is detrimental to the quality of local government, McGregor said. “You want your elected representative to reflect interests of as many people possible and if a small share of the population is voting that’s not going to happen.”