Key ward races go down to the wire in Toronto municipal election

Theglobeandmail.com
October 19, 2018
Jeff Gray

The balance of power on Toronto’s new 25-member council is set to be decided by a few tight races in wards across the city.

After Ontario Premier Doug Ford shrunk the city’s council from 47 wards to 25 in the middle of the election campaign this summer, the city’s new boundaries pitted many long-time incumbents against one another, prompting intense street-by-street political fights across the city.

While polls suggest that, in the race for mayor, incumbent John Tory is on track to defeat challenger Jennifer Keesmaat on Monday, campaign insiders and the few polls done at the ward level suggest a number of races are tight. A handful that pit conservative-leaning councillors against centrists or left-leaning councillors could tip council’s balance and potentially complicate the centre-right Mr. Tory’s second term.

If council’s largely NDP-affiliated left-leaning bloc wins just the 10 or so seats believed to be within their reach, they could align with centrist councillors issue-by-issue and wield considerable clout, said Aleem Kanji, a political strategist and city hall lobbyist with Sutherland Corp.

“The real issue here is … will the incoming mayor have control of council? Who will have that balance of power?” Mr. Kanji said. “I believe it is going to be close.”

Among the contentious issues expected early in the next term are the escalating costs of the Scarborough subway extension, supported by Mr. Tory and Mr. Ford, and a plan, opposed by Mr. Tory, to put bike lanes on a redesigned stretch of Yonge Street in North York. If he is re-elected, Mr. Tory could need to forge new alliances on a smaller council to keep his agenda on track.

In an editorial board meeting with The Globe and Mail this week, Mr. Tory said wrangling for votes on a smaller council might seem easier. But it also means that if one or two councillors are away for a key meeting, votes could hang in the balance: “Well yes I guess it is easier to do your wrangling, if you want to use that word, within 25 people. But it also means the margin for error is much less.”

Mr. Tory has strategically endorsed just two candidates for council. Most recently, he tapped Joe Mihevc, a long-time councillor and New Democrat in Ward 12 (Toronto-St. Paul’s). While the two men disagree on many issues, Mr. Mihevc and the mayor have collaborated in the past and Mr. Mihevc is facing Josh Matlow, a councillor who once ran for the provincial Liberals and who has clashed with Mr. Tory repeatedly over the Scarborough subway.

Mr. Tory also endorsed city planner and rookie candidate Brad Bradford in Ward 19 (Beaches-East York). He is seen as having the strongest hope to stop former NDP MP Matthew Kellway, who counts former mayor David Miller among his endorsements and who two recent polls suggest has a lead.

Meanwhile, a new activist group called Progress Toronto, which says it has raised more than $30,000 and marshalled hundreds of volunteers, has set its sights on dethroning right-leaning incumbents in several wards while also aiding a handful of left-leaning candidates.

Among their targets is long-time councillor Giorgio Mammoliti, a right-wing booster of Mr. Ford. He is in a tough fight against incumbent councillor Anthony Perruzza, a New Democrat, in Ward 7 (Humber River-Black Creek), with one poll showing Mr. Mammoliti trailing.

“We have an opportunity to advance a progressive agenda for the city,” says Progress Toronto’s executive director Michal Hay, a former aide to councillor Mike Layton and also campaign director for Jagmeet Singh’s 2017 federal NDP leadership bid. “With more progressive city councillors, that will likely move the mayor’s vote in a progressive direction as well.”

Other wards where incumbents are said to be in tight races include Ward 20 (Scarborough Southwest), where Gary Crawford, Mr. Tory’s Progressive Conservative budget chief, is facing off with Michelle Holland-Berardinetti, a centrist ally of Mr. Tory.

In Ward 6 (York Centre), long-time councillor and New Democrat Maria Augimeri is head-to-head with James Pasternak, a Tory ally. In Ward 25 (Scarborough-Rouge Park), incumbent NDP-affiliated councillor Neethan Shan is locked in a battle with challenger Jennifer McKelvie, who ran unsuccessfully in 2014 and has been endorsed by local Progressive Conservatives and Liberals. One poll shows Ms. McKelvie has a substantial lead.